GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 2 to 4 cents higher; HRW steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans and wheat saw persistent buying pressure most of the overnight session while corn saw action on either side of unchanged. Outside markets are mixed overnight as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher on profit-taking while the U.S. dollar index is around 450 points higher, making up for yesterday’s loss.
Mexico has rolled back restrictions on glyphosate and genetically modified (GM) corn after a ruling by a U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) dispute panel, marking a shift in its agricultural policy. The Ministry of Economy nullified key sections of the February 2023 decree restricting these products. The ruling follows a U.S. trade challenge, with the panel deciding in favor of the U.S. in December 2024. While it allows GM corn imports, Mexico retains a ban on GMO corn planting. Despite the reversal, Mexico still plans to phase out glyphosate and implement GMO labeling and traceability measures.
A Russian court ruled in favor of a lawsuit filed by the General Prosecutor’s Office to transfer all the assets of Rodnie Polya, which exported 14% of Russian grain in the 2023-24 season, to the state. Published materials cited the foreign citizenship of a former owner as a key reason for the move, aimed at preventing foreign control over strategic assets. The decision creates an important precedent as some other grain sector assets in Russia are still controlled by foreign-registered firms. Rodnie Polya, formerly known as TD RIF, controls a major grain-loading terminal in the Black Sea region, classified as a strategic asset that, by law, cannot be controlled by foreigners. It also owns 17 grain-transporting vessels.
Export sales for the week ended Jan. 30:
- Corn: Net sales of 1.477 MMT for 2024-25, up 9% from the previous week and 32% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico, Japan and South Korea. Sales came in the upper end of expectations ranging from 850,000 MT to 1.5 MMT. Exports totaled 1.352 MMT, with the bulk of the total going to Mexico and Japan.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 387,700 MT for 2024-25, down 12% from the previous week and 40% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China. Sales in the lower end of expectations ranging from 300,000 to 1.1 MMT. Exports totaled 1.193 MMT.
- Wheat: Net sales of 438,900 MT for 2024-25, down 4% from the previous week but up 41% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and unknown destinations. Sales came within expectations ranging from 200,000 to 550,000 MT. Exports totaled 264,800 MT.
CORN: March corn futures pivoted near unchanged overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $4.95 before tackling the psychological $5.00 mark. Support comes in at the 10-day moving average at $4.89 then $4.84 1/4 on additional selling pressure.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures bounced off the 10-day moving average overnight, which remains initial support at $10.55 1/4. Selling below that mark finds support at the psychological $10.50 mark. Resistance stands at $10.65 3/4, the 200-day moving average, then yesterday’s high of $10.79 3/4.
WHEAT: March SRW futures posted modest gains overnight. Continued strength targets resistance at $5.77 then this week’s for-the-move high of $5.84 1/4. Bulls are looking to hold support at $5.67 3/4 then $5.63 3/4 on resurgent selling pressure.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Traders are likely to keep a close eye on the cash cattle market. Amid highly negative margins and a steep selloff in futures, packers started with cash cattle bids well below week-ago, though feedlots are in no hurry to move cattle at lower prices. That could lead to a light week of negotiated trade with cash trade as packers lean heavily on contracted supplies. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday sharply lower as Choice cutout fell $5.39 to $325.34 while Select sunk $3.08 to $314.33. USDA reported net beef sales of 24,900 MT.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, driven by technical selling as April futures have entered the upper end of the recent range. April lean hog futures have struggled to break above $92.00 since the initial test of that mark in December. Recent strength in the cash market could provide some support, as the CME lean hog index is up another 52 cents to $84.60 as of Feb. 4, the largest daily increase since the early January seasonal low. Pork cutout fell 93 cents to $93.83 Wednesday, led by weakness in butts, ribs and loins. USDA reported net pork sales of 50,700 MT for 2024.