GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 5 to 7 cents lower; HRS 8 to 10 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans and wheat saw profit-taking overnight following yesterday’s impressive gains, while corn traded on either side of unchanged. Each saw an increase in buying interest going into the break. The marketplace will continue to be sensitive to news regarding trade/tariffs, particularly with China and potentially the E.U. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are solidly lower, having given up over $4.00 from yesterday’s high. The U.S. dollar inex is around 450 points lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of 132,000 MT of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2024-25 marketing year.
President Donald Trump agreed to pause tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods after negotiations with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The duties, originally set to take effect today will be postponed for at least 30 days while further discussions take place.
China on Tuesday imposed targeted tariffs on U.S. imports and put several American companies, including Google, on notice for possible sanctions, in a measured response to the sweeping duties on Chinese imports imposed by President Trump. Beijing’s limited counter to Trump’s imposition of an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports underscored the attempt by Chinese officials to engage in talks that could avert an outright trade war. China’s new measures include a 15% levy on U.S. coal and LNG and 10% for crude oil, farm equipment and a small number of trucks as well as big-engine sedans shipped to China from the United States.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian corn crop forecast 2 MMT to 123 MMT, as it’s likely 30% to 40% of the safrinha crop will be planted after the ideal window. Safrinha yields will be highly dependent on when Brazil’s rainy season comes to an end. Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean estimate at 170 MMT. After cutting his Argentine crop estimates for three weeks in a row, Cordonnier kept his forecasts at 49 MMT for soybeans and 47 MMT for corn as he sees how the weather plays out this month. Of note: With the cut the Brazilian corn crop estimate, Cordonnier now projects total South American corn production will decline 300,000 MT (0.2%) from year-ago. He forecasts South American soybean production will rise 16.6 MMT (7.6%) from last year.
CORN: March corn futures traded on either side of unchanged overnight. Resistance comes in at $4.92, which is reinforced by the Jan. 29 for-the-move high close of $4.97. Support stems from the 10-day moving average at $4.86 then $4.81 1/2.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures gave up a portion of Monday’s gain overnight. Support at $10.53 1/2 limited overnight weakness, while additional selling targets support at yesterday’s low of $10.31 3/4. Initial resistance stands at $10.57 1/2, which is backed by the 200-day moving average at $10.65 3/4.
WHEAT: March SRW futures continue to face heightened volatility. Bulls continue to struggle breaking above key resistance at $5.67 1/2. Continued selling pressure finds support at $5.59, which is backed by yesterday’s low of $5.50 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone on followthrough technical selling, though discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. Price action in futures has diverged from the cash market, as last week’s cash cattle average climbed another 38 cents to a record $209.57. That marks the fifth consecutive week that cash cattle prices boasted a record. Wholesale beef prices continue to show strength as well, with Choice cutout rising $4.31 to $331.99 Monday, while Select increased $2.77 to $319.84.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a weaker tone in a continuation of yesterday’s selling pressure. April futures closed limit lower Monday under the assumption that Mexican tariffs on U.S. goods would draw a significant portion away from U.S. export demand, despite the U.S. and Mexico delaying any tariffs for at least a month. Futures also fell despite continued strength in the cash index, as the CME lean hog index is up another 29 cents to $83.77 as of Jan. 31. That is up $3.34 from the Jan. 9 seasonal low. Pork cutout pulled back 94 cents to $93.81, giving up a portion of Friday’s impressive gain, led lower by hams. Limits on lean hog futures will be expanded to $6.00 today.