GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat steady to 2 cents higher; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Buying interest increased in each going into the break. Outside markets are unfavorable this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower and near recent lows while the U.S. dollar index is around 250 points higher.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins speaks this morning before the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture (NASDA) Winter Policy Conference. Brooke signaled earlier that there would be “big news” this week and most think it will be a new Trump administration approach to combating highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and surging egg prices. Rollins has been working with the White House and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett on the coming announcement.
President Donald Trump ordered a probe into potential new tariffs on copper imports to rebuild U.S. production of a metal critical to electric vehicles, military hardware, the power grid and many consumer goods. Trump, looking to thwart what his advisers see as a move by China to dominate the global copper market, signed an order at the White House directing Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to start a national security probe under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. That is the same law Trump used in his first term to impose 25% global tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Mexico’s lower house of Congress has approved a constitutional reform to ban the planting of genetically modified (GM) corn, passing the measure with a 409-69 vote. The reform designates native corn as an “element of national security.” However, concerns have emerged over a provision stating that any other use of GM corn must be evaluated for potential risks to biosecurity, health and cultural heritage. The measure now heads to the Senate for final approval. This move follows Mexico’s prior attempt to ban GM corn imports, which was overturned under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), raising the possibility of renewed U.S. objections.
CORN: May corn futures saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome psychological $5.00 resistance, which is reinforced by resistance at $5.02, the 10-day moving average. Support lies at $4.91 1/4, the 40-day moving average, then $4.88 1/2.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures saw modest selling overnight. Support comes in at $10.37 1/4 then $10.31. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at the psychological $10.50 mark before tacking resistance at $10.54 1/4, the 20-day moving average.
WHEAT: May SRW futures saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Initial resistance stands at $5.90 1/4 with continued strength eyeing psychological $6.00 resistance. Support comes in at the overnight low of $5.85 then the 40-day moving average at $5.81 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength, though trade is likely to become keyed into the cash cattle market. Traders anticipate a slowdown in the recent weakness in cash cattle prices, shown by shrinking discounts in futures to the cash market. Cash trade remains slow to start the week, but any increase in activity could be quickly reflected in futures, given the upcoming February contract’s expiration. Wholesale beef continued modestly higher Tuesday as Choice cutout climbed another 59 cents to $314.32, while Select inched up 16 cents to $304.13.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of the recent technical breakdown, though discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. Traders anticipate recent weakness in the cash market will continue, as April futures are now trading over $3.00 below the CME lean hog index. The index, which is down another 21 cents to $89.47, has been keyed into daily changes in pork cutout. As cutout rose earlier this week, the index is reflecting a slowdown in daily declines. Pork cutout did reverse lower Tuesday, falling $2.78 to $95.65 as all cuts except ribs posted losses.