GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 4 to 6 cents lower; HRW 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS 1 to 3 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: The grain complex led weakness overnight, while soybeans traded on either side of unchanged. Buying pressure modestly increased in each going into the break. May corn is toying with three consecutive down days, a historically bullish technical pattern. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower and near recent lows while the U.S. dollar index is around 250 points lower. The dollar was pressured by falling interest rates as long-term bonds are trading at the highest mark in two and a half months.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum reaffirmed her commitment to securing a deal with the U.S. to prevent the imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexican exports, set to take effect on March 4. She emphasized Mexico’s dedication to addressing the U.S. fentanyl crisis and maintaining strong trade relations under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Sheinbaum also noted that Mexico is considering additional tariffs on imports from countries without free trade agreements, particularly China. Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard remains in Washington for negotiations, as Sheinbaum expressed willingness to speak directly with President Donald Trump if necessary. As we reported in “Evening Report” on Monday, Trump said his planned 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian exports to the U.S. “are going ahead on time, on schedule.”
The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is calling for public comments by March 11 regarding unfair trade practices and non-reciprocal trade arrangements, in line with President Trump’s America First Trade Policy and a recent Presidential Memorandum on Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs. The agency seeks details on specific foreign policies, measures or barriers that harm U.S. industries, urging respondents to quantify economic impacts. The focus is on G20 nations and major U.S. trade deficit partners, including China, the EU, Mexico and Japan. USTR also noted it may act before the comment deadline if necessary.
Rainfall last week favored south-central regions of Brazil while dryness remained across much of far southern areas. As a result, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean production estimate 1 MMT to 170 MMT and he has a neutral to slightly lower bias toward the crop. Cordonnier kept his Brazilian corn production forecast at 123 MMT, noting some safrinha corn is going to be planted after the ideal window, though not nearly as much as feared several weeks ago. For Argentina, Cordonnier noted recent rains and more forecast for this week will benefit crops. Therefore, he left his Argentine crop forecasts at 48 MMT for soybeans and 46 MMT for corn with a neutral bias toward both.
CORN: May corn futures saw followthrough selling overnight. The 40-day moving average limited the downside at $4.90 3/4 and will remain support, with backing from the Feb. 3 low of $4.84. Resistance comes in at $4.97 1/4 then the psychological $5.00 mark on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Selling finds support at $10.41 1/4 then $10.31, while resurgent strength finds resistance at $10.48 1/2 then $10.53 1/4.
WHEAT: May SRW futures saw continued selling pressure overnight. Tentative support lies at $5.81 1/2, which is reinforced by support at $5.75. Resistance comes in at $5.90 1/4 then the psychological $6.00 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. April live cattle futures have broken out of the steep downtrend that capped prices since the late-January peak. That could lead to followthrough strength today. Last week’s cash cattle average fell $3.27 to $199.64. Traders do not anticipate much more weakness in the cash market this week, as February futures are less than a dollar below last week’s average. Wholesale beef rebounded Monday, with Choice cutout climbing $2.96 to $313.73 while Select rose $1.41 to $303.97.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by strength in pork cutout. After seeing sharp losses last week, pork cutout has rebounded the past couple of days, rising $1.36 to $98.43 Monday. Gains in bellies and butts led cutout higher, though movement fell to 245.7 loads. Cutout led the cash hog market lower last week and recent strength is likely to stem losses in the cash index. The CME lean hog index is down 85 cents to $89.68 as of Feb. 21, the second straight daily decline.