GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: 6 to 8 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the downside in overnight trade though selling efforts stalled towards the end of the session. Outside markets are quiet to start the week, with both front-month crude oil futures and the U.S. dollar index trading near unchanged.
Rainfall across center-west, southern parts of center-south and far southern areas of Brazil will be light to moderate, which could slow soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting. Other areas of the country will be mostly dry, with concerns for rising crop stress. Argentina is in line for widespread rains over the next 10 days, though northern areas of the country will be slow in getting sufficient rainfall given hot temps.
AgRural reduced its Brazilian soybean production forecast by 2.8 MMT to 168.2 MMT, led by cuts to the crop in Rio Grande do Sul. The firm said soybean harvest reached 39% as of last Thursday, nearly caught up to last year’s 40% on this date. Safrinha corn planting jumped to 64% done, though that was still behind 73% at this time last year.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins hinted in a post on X that “big announcements” would be coming this week. This was a clear teaser as no details or other hints were provided. Possibilities include: 1) The Trump administration’s new approach to fighting highly pathogenic avian influenza and plan to lower egg prices; 2) More farmer funding freed up from prior review holds; 3) Information on timing of $10 billion in economic aid and $21 billion in ag disaster aid.
CORN: May corn futures favored the downside overnight. Continued selling finds support at the psychological $5.00 mark then $4.95 1/4, the Feb. 10 low. Resistance stands at $5.07 1/2 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures saw modest selling overnight. Bulls are looking to continue the recent uptrend by holding prices above $10.51 1/2 support, which is reinforced by support at $10.47. Resistance stands at $10.57 1/4 then $10.65 on a bounce.
WHEAT: May SRW futures saw sharp selling overnight. Bulls are looking to hold support at $5.88 on continued selling pressure. Resistance stands at $5.98 1/2, the 10-day moving average, which is quickly backed by the psychological $6.00 mark, then $6.08.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, led by persistent weakness in the cash market. Cash cattle trade picked up to end last week at mostly lower prices, averaging $199.61 early on Friday, though last week’s official figure won’t be known until later today. Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report was largely neutral, with each category close to pre-report expectations. Wholesale beef prices continue to fall, as Choice cutout is down another $1.86 to $310.77, while Select sunk 62 cents to $302.56.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by strength in pork cutout. Steep losses in cutout led to weakness in hog futures last week, eventually leading to weakness in the cash hog market. Pork cutout rose $3.04 to $97.07 Friday, as all cuts posted gains. Movement rebounded to a strong 357.2 loads as well, indicating grocer demand under the market. Recent weakness in cutout led the CME lean hog index 69 cents lower to $90.53 as of Feb. 20, ending the extended string of price gains.