GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 3 to 5 cents lower; HRS 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each traded on either side of unchanged overnight, but favored the downside into the break. Recently, prices have been strong on the open, bulls are looking to continue that trend. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher, bouncing from recent lows, while the U.S. dollar index is around 75 points higher.
Thailand’s feed industry is pitching to buy about $2.8 billion worth of agricultural commodities annually from the U.S. instead of other suppliers, as the country seeks to narrow its $35 billion trade surplus and head off possible tariffs on its own exports. Bloomberg reported the Thai Feed Mill Association is in talks with the government to ease some rules to make U.S. feedstuffs like soybean meal and corn more competitive to import. A move to reduce or remove a 2% import tax on U.S. soymeal, potentially via a trade pact, could immediately incentivize Thai feed mills to switch their purchases from Brazil, the head of the Thai Feed Mill Association said.
Brazil is pushing back against the Trump administration’s complaints about ethanol tariffs by highlighting the lack of reciprocal access for Brazilian sugar in the U.S. market. Brazilian officials argue that any discussion of fair trade should include addressing the high tariffs and quotas on Brazilian sugar exports to the United States. But U.S. interests dispute some of Brazil’s claims, saying tariffs are just one part, with subsidies and nontariff trade barriers in Brazil a key component of its policy framework. Click here to view our special report.
The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) is urging the reinstatement of expired biofuel tax incentives to provide stability amid uncertainty surrounding the new Section 45Z clean fuel production tax credit. RFA President Geoff Cooper emphasized that bringing back these credits would bridge the gap until the 45Z credit becomes fully operational in 2025. At RFA’s National Ethanol Conference, Cooper highlighted ethanol’s critical role in bolstering the farm economy, advocating for regulatory changes such as year-round E15 sales to boost corn demand. Odds are relatively low for any reinstatement anytime soon because this would be a tax change and that would likely have to be part of a coming reconciliation measure on tax cuts, incentives and other tax-related policy.
CORN: March corn futures traded in a tight range overnight. Prices were capped by yesterday’s high of $5.04 1/4 and supported by psychological $5.00 support. Additional resistance stands at $5.09, while bulls are seeking to hold support at $4.94 1/2 on profit-taking.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures continue to see limited volatility. Bulls are looking to overcome initial resistance at $10.41 1/4, which has capped gains the past two sessions. Resistance stands at $10.50 above that mark. Support comes in at $10.33 1/2 then $10.27 3/4 on resurgent selling pressure.
WHEAT: March SRW futures saw profit-taking overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above psychological support at $6.00, which is reinforced by support at $5.91 1/2. Resistance stands at yesterday’s for-the-move high of $6.09.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open lower following reports that USDA will not impose restrictions on cattle imports from Mexico despite the latest detections of New World screwworm (NWS) in a cow from Tabasco state. Reports of the NWS case sent feeders sharply higher yesterday and limited selling pressure in fats. Cash cattle prices are likely to continue the recent downtrend as packers actively manage highly negative margins. Wholesale beef ended Tuesday mixed as Choice cutout rose 7 cents to $315.77 while Select fell $2.52 to $303.71.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as technical selling continues to weigh heavily on prices. April lean hog futures saw strength early in the past two sessions but heavy selling in the latter half of the sessions closed prices near session lows in each. That resistance near contract highs is likely to continue. The CME lean hog index is up another 70 cents to $90.19 as of Feb. 17. Pork cutout saw sharp losses Tuesday, falling $3.00 to $99.47 as all cuts excepts ribs posted losses on the day.