GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents higher; HRW steady to 2 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn led strength overnight while soybeans and wheat faced selling pressure for much of the overnight session, though buying interest increased in each going into the break. Front-month crude oil futures continue to struggle garnering much bullish momentum and are consolidating near recent lows. The U.S. dollar index is around 450 points higher, bouncing front Friday’s for-the-move low.
The Trump administration is rolling out a new strategy to combat highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), moving away from mass culling of infected flocks. Spearheaded by National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, the plan prioritizes enhanced biosecurity measures and medication to control the spread of the virus. Targeted containment methods will enhance efficiency in preventing outbreaks, with government scientists and global academic experts contributing to the plan’s development. The plan’s success hinges on industry adoption and global trade acceptance. Balancing effective disease control with maintaining poultry exports remains a critical challenge for the administration.
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentine soybean and corn production forecasts by 1 MMT each to 48 MMT and 46 MMT, respectively, due to irregular rainfall across the country, high temperatures and a continued decline in crop conditions. He maintains a neutral to lower bias toward both crops. Cordonnier kept his Brazilian crop forecasts at 171 MMT for soybeans and 123 MMT for corn. Given drier weather across central Brazil, he is less worried about delays with soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting.
Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 23% done as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, with notable progress in Mato Grosso. Harvest remained well behind 32% on this date last year. Safrinha corn planting jumped 16 percentage points to 36% as producers worked to get as much seeded before the ideal window closes, though the pace remained far behind last year’s 59% at this time.
CORN: March corn futures led strength overnight. The psychological $5.00 mark stands as initial resistance, which is backed by resistance at $5.05. Support stands at $4.95 then $4.92 1/4, the 10-day moving average, on profit-taking.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures saw action on either side of unchanged overnight. Bulls are looking to challenge resistance at Friday’s high of $10.46 3/4, which is quickly reinforced by the psychological $10.50 mark. Support stands at $10.40 then last week’s low of $10.24 1/2.
WHEAT: March SRW futures consolidated near Friday’s highs overnight. Resistance stands at Friday’s high of $6.02 3/4 then $6.09 1/2. Support comes in at $5.91 1/2 then $5.87 3/4 on profit-taking.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open lower in a continuation of Friday’s selling pressure. Cash fundamentals continue to erode, showcased by last week’s cash cattle average plunging $4.14 from the previous week to $202.91, the second consecutive decline. Packers continue to slow slaughter runs amid extremely poor margins, likely leading to continued weakness in the cash cattle market. Wholesale beef ended Monday mixed, though movement was light given the federal holiday. Choice cutout climbed $1.00 to $315.70, while Select fell 91 cents to $306.23.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by continued strength in cash fundamentals. Friday’s selling pressure, which brought a lower close despite a gap higher on the open, could bleed into today’s session, limiting gains after the open. The CME lean hog index continues to work higher, rising another 71 cents to $88.77 as of Feb. 13. Pork cutout rose 48 cents to $102.47 Monday, a fresh for-the-move high, though movement was light. Loins, ribs and butts each posted strong gains to start the week.