GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW 4 to 6 cents higher; HRS 7 to 9 cents higher; HRS 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans mildly favored the downside in overnight trade while wheat saw relative strength. Corn saw a notable increase in buying pressure into the break following strong export sales this morning. Producer price inflation (PPI) came in hotter than expected this morning, similar to consumer inflation yesterday. PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, well above expectations of 0.3%. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures continue to undergo selling pressure while the U.S. dollar index is down around 150 points.
President Donald Trump agreed in a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to start negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine. Trump said the U.S. would start negotiations immediately, indicating he’ll probably meet Putin in Saudi Arabia in the “not-too-distant future.” European officials got no advance warning of Trump’s call with Putin, Bloomberg reported. Ukraine and Europe must be part of negotiations and Kyiv should be provided with strong security guarantees, according to a joint statement from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, the UK, Spain and European Union officials. China supports a meeting between Trump and Putin to end the war.
Trump said he plans to unveil reciprocal tariffs today but gave no other details. “Today is the big one: reciprocal tariffs,” Trump wrote on his social media platform. “Very simply it’s if they charge us, we charge them,” Trump said. Indications are that autos and pharmaceuticals will be exempt from the tariffs.
Export sales for the week ended Feb. 6:
- Corn: Net sales of 1.649 MMT for 2024-25, up 12% from the previous week and 45% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan, South Korea and Mexico. Sales came in the upper end of expectations ranging from 800,000 MT to 1.7 MMT. Exports totaled 1.354 MMT, with the bulk of the total going to Mexico and Japan.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 185,500 MT for 2024-25, down 52% from the previous week and 74% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China. Sales came in below expectations ranging from 300,000 to 800,000 MT. Exports totaled 1.101 MMT.
- Wheat: Net sales of 569,600 MT for 2024-25, up 30% from the previous week and 45% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and South Korea. Sales came in the upper end of expectations ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 MT. Exports totaled 577,300 MT.
CORN: March corn futures gave up a portion of Wednesday’s gain overnight. Prices are currently caught between 10-day moving average resistance at $4.88 1/2 and 20-day moving average support at $4.84 1/2. Additional strength targets $4.91 resistance, while weakness targets support at $4.76 3/4.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures saw modest followthrough selling overnight. Next support comes in at the Jan. 16 low of $10.18 1/2. Bulls are targeting initial resistance at $10.33, the 40-day moving average, before tackling stiff resistance at $10.43 1/4.
WHEAT: March SRW futures bounced overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $5.84 1/4 before tackling stiff resistance at $5.91 1/2, the 200-day moving average. Support comes in at $5.73 1/2, the 10-day moving average, then $5.69.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, driven by technical selling pressure, though steep discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. April live cattle futures continue to maintain a steep downtrend from the late-January record high on the daily bar chart with little signs of a bottom yet. Cash cattle trade started lower this week as well, further pressuring futures. The decline in wholesale beef values accelerated Wednesday as Choice cutout fell $3.20 to $319.26 while Select sunk $3.07 to $309.14. USDA reported net beef sales of 13,100 MT for 2025.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of recent strength. Accelerating gains in the CME lean hog index likely played a role in Wednesday’s push to contract highs in April futures. The index is up another 89 cents to $87.08 as of Feb. 11, the largest daily gain since bottoming in early January. Pork cutout pulled back from recent highs Wednesday, falling $1.09 to $98.63, with losses in ribs and loins leading the way lower. USDA reported net pork sales of 24,900 MT for 2025.