GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 6 to 8 cents higher; HRS 4 to 6 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each posted gains overnight, though volume was light as each traded in a relatively tight range. Each are near significant technical levels which could provide headwinds after the open. Outside markets are supportive this morning as front-month crude oil futures are higher on heightened tensions in the Middle East, while the U.S. dollar index is trading around 150 points lower.
Heavy rain developed in interior southern Brazil as expected during the weekend, with more rainfall expected the first half of this week. World Weather Inc. says some flooding resulted, though the extent of any damage to crops is uncertain. Favorable conditions are expected across the rest of Brazil. Shower activity was limited to northern areas of Argentina during the weekend, resulting in net drying across most of the country. Eastern Argentina will be drier than normal the next 10 days, while light rains are expected in western and northern areas.
This will be a busy week for lawmakers as they approach the end of the 118th Congress with a focus on fiscal year (FY) 2025 appropriations. With the current continuing resolution (CR) set to expire on Dec. 20, it appears likely another stopgap spending measure will be passed, extending funding into March 2025. The House plans to take up the FY 2025 National Defense Authorization Act this week. The NDAA is considered a “must-pass” bill, and Congress has successfully passed it every year since 1961. Key economic data this week will be consumer inflation figures on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. USDA will update its cotton production estimate in Tuesday’s December crop reports, but there will be no updates to the corn and soybean crops this month. Modest changes are expected to ending stocks for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton.
Stephen Miller, incoming deputy chief of staff, detailed plans for a swift legislative push in 2025. Speaking on Fox News, Miller emphasized completing a border-focused bill within weeks of Trump taking office, alongside immediate executive actions. Senate Republicans, including Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), aim to deliver full border funding by February. Miller also confirmed GOP intentions to pursue a comprehensive tax package, acknowledging potential delays due to the narrow House majority. House approval of the plan remains uncertain.
CORN: March corn futures traded to a two-and-a-half-week high overnight. Continued strength finds resistance at $4.42 1/4 then $4.44 1/4. Tentative support comes in at $4.40, which is reinforced by the 100-day moving average at $4.36 1/4.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures saw strength overnight. Gains were limited by stiff resistance at $9.99, which is quickly reinforced by the 40-day moving average at $10.01 1/2, then $10.09 3/4. Support comes in at $9.91 3/4, which is firmly backed by $9.83 3/4.
WHEAT: March SRW futures trended higher overnight to a three-week high. Bulls next objective is closing prices above solid resistance at $5.72 1/4. Support comes in at $5.58 1/4, which is closely backed by the 10-day moving average at $5.56 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as technical resistance continues to weigh heavily on the market. Nearby live cattle futures finished last week below the cash market, despite generally $1 to $2 higher cash cattle prices. That signals traders expect the cash strength to be short-lived as packer margins are negative and there will be holiday-shortened slaughter schedules in two of the next four weeks. Wholesale beef prices have seemingly stabilized, with Choice cutout climbing $4.20 to $312.04 Friday, while Select dipped 37 cents to $276.73.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly stronger tone in a continuation of Friday’s strength, though technical resistance and seasonal weakness in cash fundamentals could limit gains after the open. The CME lean hog index is down another 20 cents to $83.73 as of Dec. 5, marking a fresh seasonal low. December futures finished Friday 33 cents below today’s cash quote and will cash settle against this Friday’s quote for the index, indicating traders only anticipate a slight downtick in the cash market this week. Meanwhile, pork cutout climbed $2.52 to $91.16 Friday, as all cuts rose except for ribs.