GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 2 to 4 cents higher; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each modestly favored the upside in overnight trade, with each trading in a tight range. Outside markets are mixed with front-month crude oil futures trading modestly lower while the U.S. dollar index is around 175 points lower.
The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in November, marking a strong recovery from a disappointing 37,000 jobs in October. The figure came in above expectations of 200,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% as expected, up from 4.1% in October. The Federal Reserve continues to keep a close eye on the jobs market in making decisions for rate cuts. A returning hot jobs market makes headwinds for additional cuts this year.
Russia’s tax on wheat exports will jump to 4,871.5 rubles ($49.28) per metric ton for the week of Dec. 11-17 up from 3,696.3 rubles ($37.39) the previous week. The export tax has surged 437% since mid-September, as Russia’s ag ministry tries to slow shipments.
Brazil exported 2.553 MMT of soybeans in November, down from 4.710 MMT the previous month and 5.196 MMT last year. Brazil’s corn exports totaled 4.726 MMT, down from 6.406 MMT in October and 7.406 MMT last year.
Argus Media forecasts Ukraine’s wheat production at 23.7 MMT in 2025, up from 22.4 MMT this year. Argus projects Russia’s wheat production at 81.5 MMT, up marginally from 81.3 MMT this year.
CORN: March corn futures saw followthrough buying overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $4.36 1/4, the 100-day moving average, which capped overnight gains. Support stems from the 40-day moving average at $4.33 then uptrend support at $4.30 1/2.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures saw modest followthrough strength. Prices remain in the upper end of the recent range. Resistance lies at the Dec. 3 high of $9.99. Bulls are looking to hold support at $9.90 3/4, the 10-day moving average, then $9.84 on resurgent selling pressure.
WHEAT: March SRW futures traded in a tight range overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $5.62, which is reinforced by $5.72 1/4. If support at $5.55 1/2 holds today, bulls are likely to see that as a win for the week. Additional selling would find support at $5.50.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a weaker tone in a continuation of Thursday’s technical breakdown driven by long liquidation. Cash cattle trading steady/firmer could limit losses after the open, but traders have made known their bearish bias for cash trade over the coming couple of weeks. Cash cattle activity remained light on Thursday, with limited trade taking place at steady to $2.00 higher prices, as most feedlots held out for even stronger bids. But given the poor close in cattle futures on Thursday and negative margins, packers may be reluctant to get too aggressive with cash bids. Beef cutout was weaker Thursday as Choice fell 49 cents to $307.84 while Select sunk 60 cents to $277.10.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as February futures are near the lower end of the recent range, which could spur technical buying. But the pork cutout marking a fresh seasonal low, falling 96 cents to $88.64, has traders wary that the cash hog market will continue to see sustained weakness over the near term. The CME lean hog index is down 15 cents to $83.93 as of Dec. 4. December futures settled at a $1.505 discount to today’s cash index quote. December futures go off the board next Friday and will cash settle against the index once the Dec. 13 quote is released a few days later.