GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 2 to 4 cents higher; HRW 4 to 6 cents higher; HRS 6 to 8 cents
higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each ended the overnight session modestly higher, led by strength in wheat. Corn futures were supported by export sales topping expectations. Front-month crude oil futures are up on corrective buying this morning while the U.S. dollar index is around 350 points lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 136,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Chinese importers are scaling back purchases of Canadian canola with shipments from December likely to plunge as most buyers are reluctant to sign new deals for fear that Beijing could impose retaliatory anti-dumping duties, Reuters reported. Chinese buyers have been shipping Canadian canola at a record pace since September to take delivery of cargoes contracted before Beijing unveiled an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian imports of the oilseed, in retaliation to Ottawa’s tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. China has enough canola stocks to last until February, traders said, with buyers likely to switch to other origins, including Australia, in 2025. China also has plentiful supplies of soybeans to bridge any shortfall in availability of canola.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released projections detailing the economic impact of key provisions from the 2017 Trump tax cuts set to expire at the end of 2025 (link), alongside the phase-out of full expensing for equipment and machinery (link). Of note: OMB Director Phillip Swagel noted in a blog post that unexpectedly high federal revenue since the tax cuts has been driven by inflation, new tariffs and increased economic activity.
Export sales for the week ended Nov. 28:
Corn: Net sales of 1.732 MMT for 2024-25, up 63% from the previous week and 4% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico, Japan and unknown destinations. Sales topped expectations ranging from 750,000 MT to 1.5 MMT. Exports totaled 1.045 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 2.313 MMT for 2024-25, down 7% from the previous week but up 17% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China, unknown destinations and Spain. Sales were in the upper end of expectations ranging from 1.1 to 2.5 MMT. Exports totaled 2.423 MMT, with the bulk of the total being shipped to China.
Wheat: Net sales of 378,200 MT for 2024-25, up 3% from the previous week but down 10% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and South Korea. Sales came in the middle of expectations ranging from 250,000 to 550,000 MT. Exports totaled 322,400 MT.
CORN: March corn futures ended the overnight session strong. Bulls are looking to initial resistance at $4.32 before tackling this week’s high of $4.36. Support comes in at $4.28 then last week’s low of $4.25 1/2.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures continue to base near recent lows. Bulls are looking to overcome initial resistance at $9.88 1/2 before tackling Tuesday’s high of $9.99. Support stems from $9.80 1/2, which is reinforced by the contract low of $9.73 1/2.
WHEAT: March SRW futures bounced overnight. Prices continue to be pinned to $5.50. Resistance stems from the 10-day moving average at $5.53 1/4, which is backed by this week’s high of $5.56 1/2. Support comes in at $5.43, then the contract low of $5.40 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly higher tone, driven by technical buying. February live cattle futures continue to see wide daily ranges, though price action has been largely contained by $188.00 support and $189.50 resistance. Prices neared the lower end of that range Wednesday, which is likely to support futures today. Cash cattle negotiations remain slow to start the week with packers pricing cattle higher and packers holding off on purchases given negative margins and recent strong purchases. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday mixed, with Choice cutout dropping $2.50 to $308.33 and Select climbing $2.37 to $277.70. USDA reported net beef sales of 100 MT for 2024 — a marketing-year low.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s strength off intraday lows. February lean hog futures continue to consolidate in an apparent bull-flag formation on the daily bar chart, with recent strength in the cash market likely to support futures today as well. The CME lean hog index is up a penny to $84.07 as of Dec. 3, pausing the three-week price slide. Pork cutout fell a penny to $89.60 Wednesday, driven by weakness in loins and butts. Seasonally, the cash index and pork cutout could face more pressure, though slaughter numbers have been running well under levels implied by USDA’s September Hogs & Pigs Report, limiting normal fourth-quarter price weakness. USDA reported net pork sales of 35,200 MT for 2024, up notably from the previous week and four-week average.