GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 3 to 5 cents higher; HRS 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Short covering spurred gains in the soy and wheat markets overnight, while corn rebounded from Monday’s weakness. End-of-year positioning is likely to drive a significant portion of trade today. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher this morning and near recent highs, while the U.S. dollar index is around 100 points higher.
Grain and livestock markets will observe normal trading hours today. All markets and government offices are closed on Wednesday, Jan. 1 for New Year’s Day. There will be no Pro Farmer updates on Wednesday. Grain and livestock markets reopen at 8:30 a.m. CT on Thursday, Jan. 2. Pro Farmer wishes you a happy and safe New Year’s celebration and a prosperous 2025!
U.S. farmers will get $9.7 billion in market relief payments to addresses declining market prices which aims to sustain farmers until a new farm bill is enacted. According to a FAPRI analysis, key allocations and distribution led by: Texas: $965 million, benefiting its status as the largest cotton producer; Iowa: $846 million, with strong support for corn and soybean farmers; Illinois: $790 million; and Kansas: $787 million. Click here for full details.
Due to adjustments in planted acreage, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Argentine soybean crop estimate 2 MMT to 53 MMT and raised his corn crop forecast 1 MMT to 50 MMT. He labels weather in Argentina as “worrisome” amid a hotter, drier pattern. Cordonnier kept his Brazilian crop estimates at 171 MMT for soybeans and 125 MMT for corn, with a neutral to higher bias toward both amid generally favorable weather aside from the far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul.
CORN: March corn futures rebounded from Monday’s loss overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at yesterday’s high of $4.58 1/2. Support comes in at $4.52 1/4, which capped losses yesterday, then the psychological $4.50 mark.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures posted modest gains overnight. Stiff resistance at the psychological $10.00 mark continues to limit strength. Bulls are seeking to hold support at yesterday’s low of $9.86 3/4 on a reversal lower, with tentative support at $9.89 1/2 on the way.
WHEAT: March SRW futures trended higher overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at yesterday’s high of $5.54 3/4, which is quickly backed by the 40-day moving average at $5.58. Support comes in at $5.48 3/4, which is firmly backed by $5.41 support.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by strength in cash fundamentals. Cash cattle averaged $194.81 last week, up 8 cents from the previous week and the sixth straight weekly gain. Boxed beef prices jumped $2.99 for Choice to $325.37 and $3.63 for Select to $294.76 on Monday. While there’s risk of long liquidation pressure to close out the year, cash fundamentals remain supportive for futures, especially given February live cattle’s discount to the cash market and the looming winter storm.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of yesterday’s weakness. February futures faced heavy long liquidation Monday as traders shore up positions ahead of the new year. The CME lean hog index is down 50 cents to $84.35 as of Dec. 27, which likely contributed to futures weakness as resurgent seasonal pressure has traders concerned cash weakness could persist into the new year. Pork cutout fell 75 cents to $94.32 Monday, led by weakness in hams, though movement surged to 425.49 loads, showing higher demand at lower prices.