GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each traded in tight ranges on low volume overnight. Buying interest peaked up in each going into the break, supported by stronger than expected export sales in corn and wheat. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher and near recent highs while the U.S. dollar index is trading around 200 points lower.
Some farmers reached out about whether they needed to sign up with IRS by Jan. 1, 2025, for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. Based on the available information, farmers do not need to sign up. The registration requirement applies specifically to biofuel producers, such as ethanol and biodiesel plants. However, farmers should stay informed about potential opportunities and maintain good records of their agricultural practices to potentially benefit from related market incentives in the future. Biofuel plants seeking to qualify for 45Z may require more information about farming practices for crops used as feedstocks and might offer premiums for implementing practices that reduce carbon intensity, such as no-till or nutrient management plans.
Brazil’s soybean and corn exports revealed contrasting performances in November, according to the latest Logistics Bulletin from the National Supply Company (Conab). Soybean exports faced a decline, while corn exports surged, bolstered by robust global demand. From January to November, soybean exports totaled 96.8 MMT, a drop from 101.8 MMT in the same period of 2023. This marked a shift in Brazil’s export revenue leadership, as soybeans lost ground to oil. The last time soybeans were not Brazil’s top export earner was in 2021, when iron ore took the lead. Corn exports, on the other hand, displayed significant growth, as movement through the Northern Arc of ports jumped. Conab forecasts continued growth in Brazil’s agricultural exports, driven by production recovery and improved logistics.
Export sales for the week ended Dec. 12:
- Corn: Net sales of 1.711 MMT for 2024-25, up 46% from the previous week and 39% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and Colombia. Sales came above expectations ranging from 1.0 to 1.6 MMT. Exports of 1.124 MMT.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 978,400 MT for 2024-25 — a marketing year low, down 31% from the previous week and 47% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China and Spain. Sales were below expectations ranging from 1.0 to 1.8 MMT. Exports totaled 1.573 MMT, with the bulk of the total being shipped to China.
- Wheat: Net sales of 612,400 MT for 2024-25, up 34% from the previous week and 64% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico, Thailand and Japan. Sales came in above expectations ranging from 250,000 to 600,000 MT. Exports totaled 376,200 MT.
CORN: March corn futures consolidated near yesterday’s highs overnight. Resistance stems from $4.55 then $4.60. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above $4.52 1/4, which is reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $4.47.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures saw modest selling overnight. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above 20-day moving average support at $9.82 3/4, which is backed by support at $9.74 1/2. Resistance stands at the 40-day moving average at $9.90 3/4 then the psychological $10.00 mark.
WHEAT: March SRW futures are struggling to overcome 10-day moving average resistance at $5.42. Strength above that mark finds resistance at $5.50. Support lies at $5.35 then the contract low of $5.29 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of Thursday’s strength, but premiums to the cash market could limit gains after the open. Traders are now anticipating higher cash trade, which leaves the market vulnerable to cash market weakness in the next few days. The strength in wholesale beef on the other hand has cash sources expecting steady-at-worst cash trade this week, which could continue to lend support. Choice cutout climbed $4.41 to $320.39 and Select rose $2.02 to $288.77 Thursday. USDA reported net beef sales of 1,100 MT for 2024, down 85% from the previous week and 81% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by continued strength in the CME lean hog index. The index is up another 35 cents to $85.10 as of Dec. 23, the sixth consecutive daily gain. Since the Dec. 9 low, the index has risen $1.77. Pork cutout rose $1.07 to $95.69 from Monday’s quote, as trade Tuesday and Thursday as accumulated into one report. Gains in hams, loins and ribs led cutout higher, with movement totaling 528.77 loads for the two days. USDA reported net pork sales of 7,100 MT for 2024, down 37% from the previous week and 67% from the four-week average.