GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Wheat: SRW steady to 2 cents lower; HRW 3 to 5 cents higher; HRS 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn led strength, wheat was mixed and soybeans favored the downside in overnight trade. Soybeans struggled to overcome initial technical resistance, which will be a key level today. Volume is expected to be below average this week. The dollar index rebounded overnight and is up around 550 points, while front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 132,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations and 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China — each for delivery during the 2024-25 marketing year.
A dispute panel has ruled Mexico violated its commitments under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) by issuing a decree banning genetically modified (GM) corn imports in early 2023, marking a crucial win for American corn growers. The ruling carries substantial economic implications, given that Mexico is the largest export market for U.S. corn. With this favorable ruling, U.S. industry officials will work closely with the U.S. Trade Representative and the incoming Trump administration to ensure the decision is enforced. If Mexico does not follow the USMCA panel decision, the U.S. would be allowed to suspend trade benefits with Mexico equivalent to the damage caused by Mexico’s GM corn measures, potentially involving imposing punitive tariffs on specific Mexican products and restricting imports from Mexico in other sectors.
Mexico said it would adhere to the USMCA ruling, which obliges it to eliminate restrictions on imports of U.S. GM corn. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced she will seek to prohibit the planting of GM corn in the country through a reform to the Constitution in 2025. Mexico’s Ag Minister Julio Berdegué will aim to increase non-GM white corn production, to eliminate the need to import corn.
Stephen Vaden, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for USDA Deputy Secretary, is getting favorable reviews. One of them comes from ag consultant Randy Russell, who said, “Stephen is one of the smartest people I have ever met… brilliant. Any time you meet with him he is extremely well prepared. He has an extensive list of contacts with folks who served in the first Trump administration, which will be invaluable on issues that impact farmers and ranchers but are in the jurisdiction of EPA, FDA, USTR and Interior. We are blessed to have him as our soon to be Deputy Secretary of Agriculture.” Link to more about Vaden.
CORN: March corn futures saw continued strength overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at the psychological $4.50 mark, which is backed by the Dec. 11 high of $4.51 1/4. Support comes in at $4.45 then the 10-day moving average at $4.43 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures struggled to overcome 10-day moving average resistance at $9.76 1/4 overnight. Additional strength targets resistance at $9.82 3/4. Support lies at $9.70 1/2 with little backing until the psychological $9.50 mark.
WHEAT: March SRW futures saw some corrective strength overnight, though gains were limited by resistance at $5.40 1/4. Additional strength looks to overcome the 10-day moving average at $5.43 1/2. Support lies at $5.33 then the contract low of $5.29 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of Friday’s strength. Cash cattle trade rebounded at the end of the week from lower levels early on, but the official weekly average will not be out until later today. The Cattle on Feed report Friday was fully neutral and is expected to have no market impact. USDA will detail frozen meat stocks for the end of November in today’s Cold Storage Report, the five-year average is a 13-million-lb. increase in beef stocks. Wholesale beef was mixed on Friday, with Choice plunging $4.84 to $315.85 while Select firmed $1.80 to $285.91.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of Friday’s strength. Futures have been supported by continued strength in the CME lean hog index which continues to show signs of a potential early seasonal low. THE index is up another 14 cents to $84.35 as of Dec. 19, marking gains in five out of the last seven days. Pork cutout remains near recent highs as well, rising $1.13 to $97.28 Friday, led by a $13.51 surge higher in bellies. USDA will detail pork stocks at the end of November in this afternoon’s Cold Storage Report. The five-year average is a 37-million-lb. decline in pork stocks during the month.