GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 7 to 9 cents higher.
Wheat: 3 to 7 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Winter wheat futures climbed overnight amid concerns extreme cold in the U.S. Plains may damage crops. Corn futures rose to a three-week high and soybeans also gained. Malaysian palm oil futures fell 1.7% and posted a drop of 2.2% for the week as demand slowed. Front-month crude oil futures rose around $2 and were poised for a sharp weekly advance of about 7%. U.S. stock index futures signal a firmer open, while the U.S. dollar index is about 100 points lower.
Grain and livestock markets trade normal hours today. All markets and government offices are closed Monday, Dec. 26, in observance of Christmas. As a result, there will be no Pro Farmer market reports next Monday. Grain and livestock markets will reopen at 8:30 a.m. CT on Tuesday, Dec. 27.
USDA reported daily sales of 124,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to “unknown destinations” and 150,000 MT of corn to Mexico – both during the 2022-23 marketing year.
Bitter cold continued to grip much of North America from Canada to Texas Thursday and early today, with temperatures dropping to -40 degrees Fahrenheit in Montana and subzero readings as far south as the Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma, World Weather Inc. said. U.S. HRW wheat “was vulnerable to a little damage the past two days because of bitter cold and snow-free conditions,” the forecaster said.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated Argentina’s soybean crop 12% good/excellent (down seven points from last week), 63% normal (up two points) and 25% poor (up five points). The exchange rated the corn crop 15% good/excellent (down two points), 59% normal (down one point) and 26% poor (up three points).
Abundant rains are expected to bring relief to Argentina’s parched cropland in coming days, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said. The lack of rainfall has slowed corn and soybean planting and slashed forecasts for the country’s wheat harvest. Farmers have so far planted 60.6% of a planned 16.7 million hectares of soybeans, 12.6 percentage points behind progress at this time last year. An estimated 51.8% of the corn crop was planted, 8.4 percentage points behind last year’s level.
Russia’s wheat export tax for Dec. 28-Jan. 10 will be 4,160.9 rubles ($61.09) per MT based on an indicative price of $312.80. That’s up sharply from a rate of 3,333.8 rubles per MT the previous week and the highest rate since the last week of August.
Indian institutions are deeply engaged in the development of genetically modified seeds for 13 crops, including rice, wheat and sugarcane, to improve their stress tolerance, yield and quality, the government said today.
CORN: March corn pushed slightly above the 40-day moving average of $6.64 overnight rose as high as $6.65 3/4, the contract’s highest intraday price since $6.69 on Dec. 1. Further resistance is seen at the 50- and 100-day moving averages, which converge around $6.69. The contract is poised for a solid weekly gain after ending last week at $6.53.
SOYBEANS: March soybean futures traded within the previous session’s range overnight and are heading for a slight weekly decline after ending last week at $14.83 3/4.
WHEAT: March SRW wheat traded within Thursday’s range overnight and is tracking for its second consecutive weekly gain after ending last week at $7.53 1/2. March HRW wheat overnight reached $8.73 3/4, the contract’s highest intraday price since Dec. 13.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady-weaker
HOGS: Steady-weaker
CATTLE: Live cattle futures may face pressure from slow cash trade this week but strength in wholesale beef and a longer-term outlook for tight supplies should limit price declines. Light cash cattle trade was reported Thursday, with prices around $155 in the Southern Plains and $158 in Nebraska – fully steady with last week in both locations. But neither packers nor feedlot operators showed much urgency to move cattle. This week’s reduced slaughter may limit the number of cattle packers buy as they try to stretch out supplies through the holiday season. Choice beef cutout values rose 35 cents Thursday to $265.21, the highest daily average since Aug. 16. February live cattle futures fell 40 cents Thursday to $157.30 and are poised for a weekly gain after ending last week at $155.775.
USDA’s Cold Storage Report showed beef stocks at the end of November at 521.9 million lbs., up 11.6 million lbs. from October. The five-year average during the month was a 3.5-million-lb. increase. Beef stocks rose 31.5 million lbs. (6.4%) from November 2021 and were 25.9 million lbs. (5.2%) above the five-year average.
USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report after today’s close is expected to show the Dec. 1 feedlot inventory down 2.8% from last year, with placements anticipated to drop 4.2% and markets expected to rise 0.9%, based on a Reuters survey.
HOGS: Lean hog futures may face pressure from continued cash market weakness. The CME lean hog index is down 90 cents to $79.67 (as of Dec. 21), the lowest since Jan. 25. After strong gains the past two days, February lean hog futures finished Thursday $9.38 above today’s cash quote, which likely limits additional buyer interest in the lead contract and could trigger profit-taking ahead of the extended Christmas weekend. Wholesale pork rebounded from an 11-month low, as cutout values rose $1.22 Thursday to $85.49 on strong movement of 309 loads.
USDA reported pork stocks totaled 454.2 million lbs. at the end of November, down 55.5 million lbs. from October, which was slightly greater than the five-year average decline of 52.7 million lbs. during the month. Pork stocks increased 52.0 million lbs. (12.9%) from November 2021 but were 27.2 million lbs. (5.6%) below the five-year average.
USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report this afternoon is expected to show the U.S. hog herd contracted 1.5% from year-ago as of Dec. 1. The breeding herd is expected to be 0.2% smaller than last year, while the market hog inventory is anticipated to be down 1.6%.