GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 7 to 9 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher; HRS 1 to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans favored the upside overnight while wheat saw early gains before selling efforts brought prices near unchanged into the break. Corn continues to show relative strength while beans are nearing key technical resistance. Outside markets continue to see heightened volatility, particularly in the U.S. equity and treasury markets. Front-month crude oil futures continue to pull back from recent highs while the dollar index is around 400 points lower after marking a fresh for-the-move high early in the session.
USDA reported daily export sales of 150,000 MT of corn for delivery to Colombia during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.1% month-over-month in November, less than expectations of 0.2% and below the prior two months at 0.2%, equating to an annual rate of 2.4%. Meanwhile, Core PCE, the Federal Reserves preferred inflation gauge, increased 0.1% as well, below expectations of 0.2% and below last month’s reading of 0.3%. Annual Core PCE steadied at 2.8%, below expectations of 2.9% but still above the Federal Reserve’s target.
The House rejected a temporary funding plan on Thursday, leaving federal agencies on the brink of closure with the current funding measure expiring at midnight ET tonight. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) says “we’ve got a plan,” and votes are expected this morning, an NBC News reporter posts on X. Members are convening at 10 a.m. ET to discuss a possible temporary fix to fund the government and avert a shutdown, Fox News reports, citing people familiar with the negotiations. The continuing resolution being discussed would be the third package for consideration and is reported to be a clean stopgap measure, according to Fox News. It does not include a debt ceiling provision, Fox News says. Our sources say it will or should likely include disaster aid and likely the $10 billion in farmer aid and perhaps an extension of the 2018 Farm Bill, as those provisions would garner more Democrat and Republican votes.
China’s Sinograin has bought nearly 500,000 MT of U.S. soybeans this week for shipment in March and April, paying more for U.S. supplies for state reserves rather than buying cheaper Brazilian beans, two U.S. traders familiar with the deals told Reuters. Sinograin’s purchases this week follow deals China booked last week for around 750,000 MT for shipment from January to March. Sinograin prefers U.S. beans when it is buying for storage because they are less prone to spoilage than those from Brazil, traders said. The purchases came as soybeans fell to near four-year lows and ahead of potential tariffs when President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
CORN: March corn futures continue to lead strength. Resistance comes in at $4.46 3/4 then at last week’s for-the-move high of $4.51 1/4. Resurgent selling pressure finds support at $4.41 1/2, the 10-day moving average, then $4.37.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures saw continued corrective strength overnight. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $9.76 3/4, the 10-day moving average, which is reinforced by resistance at $9.80. Support comes in at $9.63 1/4 then the psychological $9.50 mark.
WHEAT: March SRW futures struggled to maintain early overnight gains. Initial resistance stands at $5.40 1/4 with additional strength looking to overcome resistance at $5.45 1/2, the 10-day moving average. Support comes in at the contract low of $5.30 1/2 then the psychological $5.25 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of this week’s selling pressure, but steep discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. Cash cattle trade has picked up at steady to $2 higher levels despite weaker futures trade. The divergence between cash trade and futures is unlikely to continue for long, which would either lead to a break in cash prices or rally in futures. Wholesale beef was mixed Thursday, with Choice surging $5.85 to $320.69 while Select fell $1.44 to $284.11.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as futures continue yesterday’s rejection off key technical resistance. February futures tried and failed to break above 40-day moving average resistance Thursday, which spurred selling efforts. Meanwhile, strength in the cash market could limit selling interest, as the CME lean hog index is up another nickel to $84.21 as of Dec. 18. While the index has risen five times in the past seven days, the net advance has only been 89 cents. Pork cutout climbed $1.58 to $96.35 Thursday, led by strength in hams and bellies, though movement remains light at 206.91 loads.