GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: 2 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: The grain markets saw limited volatility overnight, with corn seeing slight buying into the break, soybeans seeing mild selling pressure and wheat facing profit taking from Tuesday’s rally. Outside markets were mixed overnight, as front-month crude oil futures traded to a two-week high and the U.S. dollar index saw mild gains.
Brazil overtook the U.S. in November to become China’s biggest corn supplier this year. China imported 3.22 MMT of corn from Brazil last month, pushing the tally for the first 11 months of 2023 to 8.8 MMT – 39.7% of its total. China imported 6.5 MMT of U.S. corn through November – 29.3% of its total. China imported 5.29 MMT of soybeans from Brazil in November, increasing this year’s total to 64.97 MMT. China’s imports of U.S. beans totaled 2.3 MMT last month for a total of 20.36 MMT through November.
CORN: March corn futures saw corrective buying overnight following Tuesday’s technical breakdown, though prices failed to overcome downtrend line support turned resistance at $4.75 1/2. Additional resistance lies at $4.79, while bulls are seeking to hold support at $4.71 1/2, then the contract low of $4.70 1/2.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures traded in a tight range overnight, with gains capped by initial resistance at $13.17 1/2, the 10-day moving average. Bulls are seeking a close above $13.28, which has capped gains thus far this week. Support stands at $13.11, then $13.05, which has attracted significant buyers’ interest over the past two weeks.
WHEAT: March SRW futures continue in a bull flag on the daily bar chart. Gains have been limited by downtrend line resistance, currently at $6.25 3/4, which is backed by Monday’s high of $6.32. Support stands at $6.18 3/4, then the 20-day moving average, currently at $6.13, which capped losses on Tuesday.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a firmer tone on technical buying. Futures pressed lower into uptrend line support on yesterday’s close, which is likely to support prices in today’s session, if the support holds. But uncertainty regarding cash cattle prices, which have fallen for six consecutive weeks, may limit buyer interest. Packers and feedlots have yet to establish bids and asking prices in this week’s cash cattle market, signaling negotiations are likely to extend deep into the week. Wholesale beef prices were weaker on Tuesday though they remain well above historical averages. Choice cutout fell 10 cents to $288.83 while Select dropped 56 cents to $263.16.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a weaker tone as the technical perspective leans bearish and cash prices continue to face seasonal pressure. February futures failed to overcome the early December high Monday and have since posted a technical reversal lower. The CME lean hog index dropped another 22 cents to $66.37 today (as of Dec. 18), marking a fresh seasonal low. Price action in futures is likely to be dictated by the index, as volume dries up into the holidays and traders see seasonal pressure extending into the new year. Wholesale pork prices slipped 91 cents to $83.06, the lowest level since May, led lower by bellies.