GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 4 to 6 cents lower; HRS 3 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the downside in overnight trade with wheat leading the way lower. Chinese bond yields hitting multi-decade lows, warning of a continued economic slowdown, and unrest in France leading to a sharply weaker Euro have traders wary of the demand outlook for U.S. grains. Front-month crude oil futures are trading around a dollar higher this morning while the U.S. dollar index is over 600 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 134,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Brazil’s soybean planting reached 91% as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, the fastest pace since 2018. The firm said corn planting was 94% done. AgRural noted crop conditions are generally favorable, though dryness is a concern in some far southern areas.
Analysts expect USDA to report U.S. processors crushed an all-time record 210.6 million bu. of soybeans in October, according to a Bloomberg survey. That would be up 24.1 million bu. (12.9%) from September and 9.2 million bu. (4.6%) above year-ago. Corn-for-ethanol use is expected to total 462.3 million bu., up 22.1 million bu. (5.0%) from September and 2.3 million bu. (0.5%) above year-ago.
Russia’s wheat export quota from Feb. 15 to June 30 will be 11 MMT, according to the Eurasian Economic Union Council (EEUC), down from 29 MMT in the same period in 2024. Quotas for corn, barley and rye will be set at zero during the same period, unlike previous seasons when no separate restrictions were applied. In a separate announcement, Russia’s ag ministry hiked the wheat export duty another 22% from Dec. 4-10. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said the government is working to increase food imports from “friendly” countries, while EEUC said it introduced duty-free quotas for imports of potatoes, carrots, apples and butter. EEUC comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia and coordinates the customs and tariff policy of its members.
The lame-duck congressional session begins this week with a focus on trying to pass another continuing resolution for fiscal year 2025 spending (current measure runs through Dec. 20), disaster aid, ag financial aid and an extension of the 2018 Farm Bill. The economic focus will be Friday’s employment data for November. Key agricultural data will be USDA’s updated farm income forecast on Tuesday.
CORN: March corn futures saw resurgent weakness overnight. Gains Friday stopped shy of the 40-day moving average at $4.32 3/4, which remains stiff resistance. Continued selling finds support at $4.29, which is backed by last week’s low of $4.25 1/2.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures saw continued selling pressure overnight. Initial support comes in at Friday’s low of $9.82 3/4 with firmer backing from $9.77 3/4. Resistance stands at $9.89 1/2 then the 20-day moving average at $9.95, which capped gains last week.
WHEAT: March SRW futures fell under selling pressure overnight. Tentative support lies at $5.43 with additional weakness finding support at the contract low at $5.42, then $5.32. Resistance stands at the psychological $5.50 mark then the 10-day moving average at $5.56 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as technical resistance sits over the market. Nearby live cattle futures struggled to extend gains late last week despite strength in the cash cattle market, suggesting traders sense the recent cash market gains may end as packers will have fresh contracted supplies available with the flip of the calendar. Wholesale beef values saw a quiet Friday with Choice cutout slipping 74 cents to $310.52 and Select unchanged at $274.30. Movement totaled a light 57 loads.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower in a continuation of Friday’s weakness. February futures saw heavy selling pressure after marking a contract high on Wednesday as weaker cash fundamentals weighed on the market. The CME lean hog index is down another 30 cents to $85.21 as of Nov. 27, extending the decline since early November, though it is still $1.36 above the October low. Pork cutout rebounded $1.37 to $90.31 Friday, led by strength in bellies, though movement was light at 201.03 loads.