GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 4 to 6 cents lower; HRW 2 to 4 cents lower; HRS 1 to 3 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans saw corrective strength, corn languished near unchanged and wheat favored the downside in the overnight session. Buying interest in each picked up into the break. Equity markets saw heavy selling pressure yesterday following the FOMC decision to cut rates another 25 basis points. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher and near recent highs while the U.S. dollar index is around 50 points lower, just below yesterday’s for-the-move high.
USDA reported daily sales of 227,200 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, with 152,200 MT for delivery during 2024-25 and the remaining 75,000 MT for shipment in 2025-26.
The bipartisan funding deal negotiated by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is dead amid opposition from President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance, escalating the likelihood of a pre-Christmas government shutdown. Some of the programs could be resurrected but nothing is certain at this stage. Criticizing the bill for favoring Democratic priorities, Trump and Vance urged Republicans to tie spending measures to a debt ceiling increase, labeling any compromise as a “betrayal of our country.”
European Union soft wheat production could rise 11% in 2025-26 in a rebound from a 12-year low, Strategie Grains said. In its first production forecast for next season, the firm projected output of soft wheat at 126.6 MMT, up from 114.2 MMT this year. The firm projected EU wheat exports in 2025-26 at 29.3 MMT, up from 23.8 MMT expected in the current marketing year.
Export sales for the week ended Dec. 12:
- Corn: Net sales of 1.175 MMT for 2024-25, up 24% from the previous week but down 10% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and Japan. Sales came within expectations ranging from 800,000 MT to 1.6 MMT. Exports of 1.055 MMT.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 1.424 MMT for 2024-25, up 21% from the previous week but down 27% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for China and unknown destinations. Sales were in the middle of expectations ranging from 825,000 MT to 2.0 MMT. Exports totaled 1.686 MMT, with the bulk of the total being shipped to China.
- Wheat: Net sales of 457,900 MT for 2024-25, up 58% from the previous week and 16% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for the Philippines and Venezuela. Sales came in the upper end of expectations ranging from 225,000 to 550,000 MT. Exports totaled 405,700 MT, up notably from a week ago.
CORN: March corn futures pivoted around unchanged in the overnight session. Bulls are looking to maintain support at $4.36 1/2, the 40-day moving average, which is reinforced by support at $4.33. Resistance stands at $4.42 1/2 then $4.44 on resurgent strength.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures saw corrective buying overnight. Initial resistance at $9.63 is reinforced by the prior contract low of $9.73 1/2. Support stems from the psychological $9.50 mark then the contract low at $9.45 1/4.
WHEAT: March SRW futures forged a fresh contract low overnight. Bulls are looking to hold support at $5.25 on continued selling pressure. Resistance stems from the Dec. 4 low of $5.40 1/4 then the 10-day moving average at $5.48.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of this week’s technical selling pressure, though steep discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. Cash cattle activity remains light so far this week, though some trade took place midweek at lower prices. Weaker price action in futures is likely to lead to lower cash cattle trade, bringing a likely end to the four-week streak of higher cash prices. Wholesale beef prices weakened for the second straight day on Wednesday, with Choice down 79 cents to $314.84 and Select down $2.95 to $285.55. USDA reported net beef sales of 7,200 MT for 2024, down 35% from the previous week and 5% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher on recent cash market strength. The CME lean hog index is up another 18 cents to $84.16 as of Dec. 17, the fourth gain in the last six days. While the net gain during that span is only 84 cents, the index is showing signs of a potential seasonal bottom. That strength is likely to help bulls continue to build momentum off yesterday’s reversal from recent lows. Pork cutout was up $1.58 to $96.35 Wednesday, a fresh for-the-move high. Gains in hams and bellies led cutout higher. USDA reported net pork sales of 11,200 MT for 2024, down 50% from the previous week and 52% from the four-week average.