GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 7 to 9 cents higher; HRW 3 to 5 cents higher; HRS 6 to 8 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat gapped higher overnight and showed continued strength, while soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged, though went into the break nearer session highs. Outside markets are supportive following a dovish Fed on Wednesday, as front-month crude oil futures are trading nearly $4.00 above Wednesday’s for-the-move low and the U.S. dollar index is trading around 700 points lower. The S&P 500 is trading within 1% of all-time highs, further boosting the risk attitude in the marketplace.
USDA reported daily sales of 400,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2023-24 marketing year.
Markets cheered the Fed’s dovish pivot on Wednesday, signaling much improved risk appetite. The U.S. stock indexes surged, gold prices soared back above $2,000, the U.S. dollar index plunged to the lowest level since Aug. 10 and Treasury yields declined, with the benchmark 10-year note yield dropping below 4%.
The Philippine government approved an extension of lower tariff rates on rice, pork and corn imports as the country battles inflation. The modified rates for most favored nations, approved in 2021, were due to expire at the end of this year.
Wheat production in the United Kingdom totaled 13.98 MMT this year, according to the ag ministry, down 10% from last year. Planted area declined 4.9% and yields fell 5.4%.
Export sales for the week ended Dec. 7:
Corn: Net sales of 1.419 MMT for 2023-24, up 10% from the previous week but down 12% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and unknown destinations. Traders expected sales of 800,000 MT to 1.6 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 1.084 MMT for 2023-24, down 23% from the previous week and 46% from the four-week average. The bulk of the increase came from China (718,300 MT). Sales came in the lower end of expectations of 900,000 MT to 1.8 MMT.
Wheat: Net sale of 1.491 MMT for 2023-24, a marketing year high and up noticeably from the previous week and four-week average. Increases came primarily for China (1.12 MMT). Traders expected sales of 1.2 to 1.6 MMT.
CORN: March corn futures continue to face persistent, methodical selling on the daily bar chart. The downtrend line currently stands at $4.84, with further backing from the 40-day moving average, currently at $4.88 1/4. Support stands at $4.79 1/2, which is backed by $4.78 1/4, then $4.75 1/2.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures are looking to hold a modest uptrend from the December low, with modest buying overnight. Resistance lies at $13.18 with further backing from $13.25 1/2. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $13.05, where significant volume has taken place over the last week, with backing from $12.95.
WHEAT: March SRW futures saw corrective buying overnight, though made up only a fraction of Wednesday’s losses. Initial resistance at the 10-day moving average, currently at $6.14 1/2, limited gains. Additional resistance lies at $6.25 3/4. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $6.06, backed by the psychological $6.00 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone on technical buying. Following three consecutive days of gains, prices slipped on Wednesday back to the downtrend line stemming from the November high. Prices did not fall below this technical support, which could support prices today. Meanwhile, a small amount of cash cattle traded at $168.00 in the northern market, about $2.00 below last week’s cash average, which could limit buying interest. Wholesale beef prices were mixed Wednesday, with Choice falling $1.14 to $291.64 and Select rising 55 cents to $259.21. USDA reported net beef export sales of 10,600 MT for 2023, up notably from the previous week and 67% above the four-week average. Net sales totaled 5,100 MT for 2024.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open mostly higher as recent volatility is likely to continue. The CME lean hog index firmed 43 cents to $68.13 (as of Dec. 12), marking the first daily increase since Nov. 8. It will take more than one daily uptick to convince traders that a seasonal low is in place, though February futures currently trading below the cash index are likely to limit losses as long as strength persists in the cash market. Wholesale pork prices dropped 3 cents to $83.93 on Wednesday, led lower by bellies. Movement remained strong at 303.03 loads, signaling continued robust grocer demand. USDA reported net pork export sales of 28,200 MT for 2023, up 9% from the previous week and 15% from the four-week average. Net sales totaled 12,900 MT for 2024.