GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 7 cents lower.
Wheat: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat traded in tight ranges near unchanged overnight while soybeans favored the downside. Each saw low volume. Corn is nearing technical support, which will be key in today’s session. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher and continue to consolidate near recent highs, while the U.S. dollar index is trading around 200 points lower.
USDA reported daily export sales of 200,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Congressional leaders are “racing” to finalize a comprehensive legislative package before today’s deadline to ensure time for drafting and posting over the weekend. The stopgap spending bill proposes extending the current resolution deadline from Dec. 20 to March 14, providing a window for negotiations on fiscal year 2025 appropriations with the incoming Trump administration.
China’s total grain production reached a record of 706.5 MMT this year, the National Bureau of Statistics said, up 1.6% from last year. The corn crop was a record 294.92 MMT, up 2.1% from last year. Rice production rose 0.5% to 207.5 MMT, while wheat output grew 2.6% to 140.1 MMT. Soybean output fell 0.9% to 20.65 MMT. The bumper harvest was attributed to larger plantings of rice and corn, on top of better yields of rice, wheat and corn.
Ukraine’s grain production could total around 55 MMT, up 1 MMT from the previous outlook, Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Vitaliy Koval said. Koval said Ukraine’s exportable surplus for 2024-25 will be 40.3 MMT, including 20.5 MMT of corn, 16.2 MMT of wheat and 2.9 MMT of barley, down from 51 MMT last year. As of Dec. 13, Ukraine had exported 19.4 MMT of grain, including 9.2 MMT of wheat, almost 8 MMT of corn and 1.9 MMT of barley.
CORN: March corn futures traded in a tight range on low volume overnight. Support stems from the 10-day moving average at $4.41. Bulls are eyeing resistance at $4.47 1/2 then the psychological $4.50 mark.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures favored the downside overnight. Uptrend support at $9.87 limited the downside overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $9.99 3/4, the 40-day moving average, on strength.
WHEAT: March SRW futures pivoted around unchanged overnight. The 10-day moving average at $5.58 1/4 marks interim support while additional selling finds support at $5.50. Resistance lies at $5.61, the 20-day moving average, then $5.69 1/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as the cash cattle market remains supportive. Cash cattle trade picked up midweek and looks to rise $1.00 to $2.00 from last week’s average. Unexpected strength in the cash market is likely to support futures to end the week. Wholesale beef prices surged Thursday, negating weakness earlier this week. Choice cutout climbed $4.01 to $315.24 while Select rose $2.37 to $280.48. While beef prices have rebounded, the strength in cattle prices has pushed packer margins deeper into the red.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, driven by technical buying off 40-day moving average support, which has limited losses the past three sessions. December futures go off the board at noon today and will cash settle against the Dec. 13 CME lean hog index quote, which will be released Tuesday. The index is up 30 cents to $83.91 as of Dec. 11, the second consecutive daily gain. Pork cutout fell 56 cents to $92.31, led lower by bellies. Movement fell to 227.64 loads, indicating grocers could be done with purchases for holiday features.