GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans favored the upside while wheat modestly favored the downside in overnight trade, with corn caught in the middle. Price action is likely to remain muted ahead of today’s USDA reports. Front-month crude oil futures are trading near unchanged while the U.S. dollar is around 250 points higher.
USDA will update its cotton production estimate in the Crop Production Report at 11:00 a.m. CT, but there will be no updates to the corn and soybean crops this month. Modest changes are expected to 2024-25 ending stocks, with the average estimates at 1.906 billion bu. for corn (1.938 billion bu. in November), 469 million bu. for soybeans (470 million bu. in November), 814 million bu. for wheat (815 million bu. in November) and 4.23 million bales for cotton (4.30 million bales in November).
South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his Brazilian production estimates at 170 MMT for soybeans and 125 MMT for corn with a neutral to higher bias toward both crops. For soybeans, he noted crop conditions are generally favorable and if weather remains beneficial his estimate could move higher. For corn, Cordonnier said improved domestic prices could encourage more safrinha acres. Cordonnier kept his Argentine crop estimates at 57 MMT for soybeans and 48 MMT for corn with a neutral bias toward both.
China imported 7.15 MMT of soybeans in November, down 940,000 MT (11.6%) from the previous month and 770,000 MT (9.7%) less than last year. Through the first 11 months of the year, China imported 97.09 MMT of soybeans, up 9.4% from the same period last year.
CORN: March corn futures traded in a tight range overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $4.44 1/4 then the psychological $4.50 mark on report driven strength. Support comes in at $4.40 then the 40-day moving average at $4.33 3/4 on a reversal lower.
SOYBEANS: January soybean futures saw modest strength overnight. Bulls are eyeing psychological $10.00 resistance on report driven strength, which is reinforced by resistance at $10.09 3/4. Support stems from uptrend support at $9.85, which has limited the downside since the Nov. 21 low.
WHEAT: March SRW futures saw modest weakness overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome 20-day moving average resistance at $5.61 before tackling yesterday’s high of $5.64 3/4. Support stems from the 10-day moving average at $5.56 1/4 which is reinforced by the psychological $5.50 mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by steep discounts to the cash market. Last week’s cash cattle average climbed 93 cents to $190.90, the highest level since early August. December futures continue to trade at a discount to the cash market, indicating traders’ belief that packer margins deep in the red will weigh on the cash market in the near term. Wholesale beef prices have stabilized with Choice cutout firming $2.10 to $314.14 Monday, while Select rose $2.61 to $279.34.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, driven by technical buying. February lean hogs have traded in a tight range over the past two weeks. Prices finished in the lower end of that range Monday, which could spur technical buying today. The CME lean hog index is down another 27 cents to $83.46 as of Dec. 6, extending the seasonal decline. Meanwhile, cutout continues to show strength, rising $2.47 to $93.63 on Monday, led by more than $7 gains in both ribs and hams. Movement totaled 344.5 loads, showing strong demand despite higher prices.