GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Soybeans: 3 to 6 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 2 to 4 cents lower; HRW 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher; HRS steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans saw relative strength overnight while grains saw persistent selling pressure for the most part. Each saw an increase in selling pressure going into the break. Outside markets saw a risk-on tone overnight, bouncing from yesterday’s selling pressure. Front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher this morning while the U.S. dollar index is around 300 points higher.
President Donald Trump has accused Japan of imposing a 700% tariff on U.S. rice, using it to justify reciprocal tariffs on Japanese imports. During recent trade talks, Trump demanded greater access for American rice and other agricultural goods. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba responded firmly, vowing not to “keep conceding to U.S. demands” and defending Japan’s need to protect sensitive sectors like agriculture. While acknowledging high tariffs on rice above quota levels, Ishiba clarified that Japan maintains a tariff-free quota for staple rice.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said no agreement has been reached with Trump on proposed U.S. tariffs targeting Mexican goods, including a 25% levy on imported vehicles and metals. While Trump described their recent conversation as “very productive,” Sheinbaum emphasized that negotiations are still ongoing at both the presidential and ministerial levels. Mexico’s economy ministry is pushing for progress ahead of the May 3 deadline, when U.S. auto part tariffs are set to take effect.
Weather for the safrinha corn crop remains generally beneficial, especially in central Brazil where the crop is filling. As a result, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop forecast 3 MMT to 125 MMT. For Argentina, Cordonnier raised his production forecasts 1 MMT for soybeans to 49 MMT and 2 MMT for corn to 48 MMT.
CORN: July corn futures favored the downside overnight. Support stems from the 10-day moving average at $4.86 1/4 on continued weakness, a break below which would indicate a likely technical breakdown. Resistance comes in at $4.90 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures bounced off key support overnight. Resistance stands at $10.50 then $10.58 on continued strength. Bulls are seeking to hold key support at $10.40 3/4, the 10-day moving average, on a reversal back lower.
WHEAT: July SRW futures favored the downside overnight in followthrough selling stemming from yesterday’s technical breakdown. Continued selling pressure finds support at $5.42 3/4 then $5.40. Bulls are looking to overcome psychological resistance at $5.50 before tackling the 10-day moving average at $5.55 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of yesterday’s technical selling pressure. The psychological $205.00 mark stands as stiff resistance for June live cattle, pausing the recent rally despite an impressive push higher in the cash cattle market last week. Cash trade jumped $3.93 to $211.63 last week, ending a three-week string of losses. Expectations are for higher trade again this week. Wholesale beef ended Monday higher as Choice cutout climbed $2.00 to $333.52 while Select rose $3.22 to $318.77.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as technical resistance continues to loom over the market. Recent strength in cash fundamentals could limit the downside after the open, but June futures have quickly built hefty premiums into the market. The CME lean hog index is up another quarter to $85.71 as of April 18, the third consecutive daily gain. Meanwhile, pork cutout gave up a portion of Friday’s big gain, falling 61 cents to $96.39, led by a $3.69 drop in bellies.