GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 3 to 5 cents lower; HRS 4 to 6 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans reversed from selling pressure on Monday and posted corrective gains overnight. Corn continues to lead strength, while wheat saw relative weakness. The overall marketplace continues to favor a risk-off tone as trade concerns limit risk tolerance. Front-month crude oil futures continue to see modest corrective buying while the U.S. dollar index continues to weaken, down around 500 points to fresh lows this morning.
USDA’s monthly Supply & Demand Report at 11:00 a.m. CT will consider trade policies currently in place at the time of publication and assume those will remain throughout the forecast time period. Analysts expect U.S. ending stocks of 1.516 billion bu. for corn (1.540 billion bu. in February), 379 million bu. for soybeans (380 million bu.), 797 million bu. for wheat (794 million bu.) and 4.93 million bales for cotton (4.90 million bales). Modest adjustments are also expected for global ending stocks forecasts. Full pre-report expectations.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke with her Mexican and Canadian counterparts on Monday as President Trump’s looming tariffs threaten North American trade ties. In a post on X, Rollins emphasized that tariffs were a “top priority” in her video call with Mexico’s agriculture secretary, Julio Berdegué. He reassured her that Mexico will not impose restrictions on U.S. GM corn imports following a recent trade panel ruling under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement that led Mexico to repeal its ban on GM corn imports. Later, Rollins discussed the U.S. ag trade deficit and Canadian import barriers with Canada’s Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay, particularly regarding U.S. dairy exports — a renewed point of contention with Trump. The U.S. accuses Canada of undermining U.S. market access through tariff rate quota policies.
Recent weather in Brazil has been generally favorable for soybean harvesting and safrinha corn crop development. Therefore, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his Brazilian production forecasts at 170 MMT for soybeans and 123 MMT for corn. However, he noted near-term rains must continue or he will start lowering his Brazilian corn crop outlook. Weather in Argentina has improved significantly, stabilizing crops. Cordonnier kept his Argentine crop forecasts at 48 MMT for soybeans and 46 MMT for corn.
CORN: May corn futures led strength overnight. Bulls cleared 10-day moving average resistance, which now lies as initial support at $4.72 3/4. Firmer support comes in at $4.69 1/4. Resistance stands at $4.82 1/4, the 40-day moving average, on continued strength.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures recovered a portion of Monday’s losses overnight. Bulls are looking to overcome 10-day moving average resistance at $10.24, which is reinforced by resistance at $10.32 1/2. Tentative support stands at $10.15, while additional selling eyes support at $10.03 3/4.
WHEAT: May SRW futures saw modest profit-taking overnight. Continued selling pressure targets support at $5.54, which is closely backed by psychological support at $5.50. Resistance stands at the 10-day moving average at $5.60 3/4 then yesterday’s high of $5.66.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by strength in cash fundamentals. As we suspected, cash cattle trade took a firmer tone in the latter portion of late last week, ending the four-week string of losses as last week’s cash cattle average firmed $2.63 to $200.28. Traders were hesitant to build premiums in nearby futures Monday as packer margins remain deep in the red, limiting their willingness to continue to pay up for supplies. Cutout ended Monday higher as Choice cutout climbed $2.68 to $317.58 while Select firmed $1.15 to $306.95.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength, though weakness in cash fundamentals could limit gains after the open. April lean hogs have negated most of the discounts to the cash market that persisted over the past few weeks. Still, the CME lean hog index continues to flounder near $90.00, most recently falling 19 cents to $89.71 as of March 7. Pork cutout continues to struggle breaking above the $100.00 mark as demand wanes seasonally ahead of the spring grilling season. Cutout fell 14 cents to $98.22 Monday, led by losses in bellies.