GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 1 to 3 cents higher; HRW 3 to 5 cents higher, HRS 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the upside in followthrough buying overnight. This morning’s rather disappointing export sales report led to some profit-taking into the break. The U.S. dollar index broke lower overnight and looks to challenge the early April low. Front-month crude oil futures are solidly lower as well, giving up a portion of Wednesday’s strong gains.
The U.S. inflation rate, as noted in the consumer price index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, slowed more than expected in March. Annual inflation fell to 2.4%, the lowest level since September, down from 2.8% in February and below expectations of 2.6%. Lower energy prices helped ease inflation, offsetting higher food prices. Compared to the previous month, CPI decreased 0.1%, the first decline since May 2020, after a 0.2% rise in February and compared to expectations of 0.1%.
Conab raised its Brazilian soybean crop forecast 500,000 MT to 167.87 MMT. The 2024-25 export forecast was increased 120,000 MT to 105.86 MMT. Conab increased its Brazilian corn production estimate 1.98 MMT to 124.74 MMT, with the safrinha forecast up 2.38 MMT to 97.89 MMT. Conab maintained its 2024-25 corn export forecast at 34 MMT, despite the higher production figure.
China’s rhetoric on its trade war with the U.S. has become increasingly aggressive with the foreign ministry saying the Trump administration’s tariffs have made the U.S. a “barbarian of the 21st century.” Trump’s tariffs will “never make America great again” ministry of foreign affairs spokesperson Huang Jingrui, wrote in an open letter today in Hong Kong’s newspaper South China Morning Post. “A tariff-wielding barbarian who attempts to force countries to call and beg for mercy can never expect that call from China,” Huang said, adding the U.S. is “obsessed with the art of bullying and blackmailing the entire world.”
Export sales for the week ended April 3:
Corn: Net sales of 785,600 MT for 2024-25 were down 33% from the previous week and from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for South Korea and Colombia. Sales came in the lower end of pre-report expectations ranging from 700,000 MT to 1.3 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 172,300 MT for 2024-25 were down 58% from the previous week and 63% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan, while China switched 132,000 MT from unknown destinations. Sales were below pre-report expectations from 200,000 to 700,000 MT.
Wheat: Net sales of 107,300 MT for 2024-25 were down 68% from the previous week and 56% from the four-week average. Increases were primarily for unknown destinations. Sales were in the middle of expectations ranging from (100,000) to 400,000 MT.
CORN: May corn futures continue to lead strength. Continued strength eyes resistance at $4.80 which is not reinforced until the Feb. 3 low of $4.84. Support stands at $4.72 then the 40-day moving average at $4.68 3/4 on profit-taking. If prices close above the psychological $4.75 mark today, that would be a win for bulls.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures saw modest followthrough buying overnight. The 40-day moving average limited overnight gains and will stand as resistance at $10.18 1/4, with strength above that mark targeting the $10.25 mark. Support stands at $10.10 1/2 then the 10-day moving average at $10.06 3/4.
WHEAT: May SRW futures continue to but up against 20-day moving average resistance, which currently stands at $5.44 3/4. Strength above that mark targets the $5.50 level. Support stands at $5.40 1/4 then $5.36 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Cattle futures surged yesterday following reports that tariffs will be suspended on most countries for 90 days. That will likely prove supportive again today and strength should be bolstered by steep discounts to the cash market. Still, the selling pressure over the past week is likely to spur additional weakness in the cash cattle market and the discount structure is unlikely to change anytime soon. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday lower as Choice cutout fell 24 cents to $337.86 while Select sunk $1.45 to $320.61. USDA reported net beef sales of 11,900 MT for 2025, up 28% from the previous week and 14% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher in a continuation of yesterday’s reversal from for-the-move lows. Nearby futures continue to trade at a discount to the cash market which could help spur gains, but recent weakness in pork cutout likely has traders concerned that recent pressure on the CME lean hog index will linger. The index is down another 16 cents to $88.00 as of April 8. Pork cutout plunged $2.69 to $90.76 Wednesday amid losses in all cuts except picnics. USDA reported net pork sales of 23,900 MT for 2025, down 55% from the previous week and 23% from the four-week average.