GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 11 to 14 cents higher; HRS 7 to 9 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each showed resilient strength overnight with wheat rebounding from yesterday’s weakness and posting the strongest gains. May corn is working higher for the sixth consecutive session as yesterday’s bullish report from USDA gave bulls a fresh catalyst. Front-month crude oil futures are trading steady this morning while the U.S. dollar index is over 1300 points lower and on three-year lows. A writeup on the economic implications of a weaker dollar can be found here.
USDA reported daily export sales of 121,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 55,000 MT is for delivery during 2024-25 and the remaining 66,000 MT is for delivery during 2025-26.
Demand across the general marketplace has dropped amid high uncertainty, noted in yesterday’s CPI coming in lower than expected and again today with producer price inflation (PPI) coming in well below expectations. US factory gate prices unexpectedly decreased 0.4% month-over-month in March 2025 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the first decline in PPI since October 2023, following a 0.1% rise in February and compared to forecasts of a 0.3% increase. Prices of goods went down 0.9%, also the biggest drop since October 2023, mainly due an 11% plunge in gasoline. Meanwhile, core producer prices edged 0.1%, below forecasts of a 0.3% rise. Year-on-year, producer prices increased 2.7%, the least in six months, compared to forecasts of 3.3%. The annual core rate also slowed to 3.3% from 3.5%.
China announced it will raise tariffs on all U.S. goods from 84% to 125% starting April 12, in its sharpest retaliatory move yet against President Donald Trump’s latest tariff escalation. The move is accompanied by a sharp rhetorical pivot: Beijing is done matching Washington dollar-for-dollar. “Given that American goods are no longer marketable in China under the current tariff rates, if the U.S. further raises tariffs on Chinese exports, China will disregard such measures,” said the ministry of finance. In a separate rebuke, China’s commerce ministry declared Washington’s use of high tariffs is now “economically meaningless,” calling them a bullying tactic meant to coerce Beijing. Nonetheless, the ministry issued a stark warning: “If the U.S. continues to infringe on China’s rights and interests, we will resolutely counterattack and fight to the end.” Of note: USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the administration is watching the impact of Chinese retaliation “hour by hour.” She predicted “we’ll see a little bit more movement and adjustment by the market as we move forward” but reiterated the administration was open to aid for farmers.
Japan’s chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa will visit Washington next week for high-level trade discussions with U.S. officials, according to a report from NHK cited by Bloomberg. The talks are scheduled for April 17 (Japan time). Akazawa will meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The agenda is expected to include tariffs, supply chain cooperation and potential adjustments to bilateral trade terms amid escalating global trade tensions.
CORN: May corn futures continue to lead the charge higher. Bulls next objective is tackling resistance at $4.90, which is backed by resistance at $4.92 1/4. Profit-taking finds tentative support at $4.80 which is firmly backed by the March 11 high of $4.77 1/2.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures continue to work higher. Resistance at the100-day moving average at $10.30 1/2 has caused some headwinds and is quickly backed by the April 1 high of $10.34 3/4. Psychological support stands at $10.25 and is backed by the 40-day moving average at $10.19 1/4.
WHEAT: May SRW futures surged higher overnight. Prices broke above key 20-day moving average resistance at $5.44 1/4 which will remain a key level today. Resistance stands at $5.50 then the 40-day moving average at $5.52 1/4 on continued strength. Bulls are ultimately looking to keep prices above $5.44 1/4, though a break below that mark challenges support at yesterday’s low of $5.34 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as steep discounts to the cash market are likely to support prices. Live cattle futures have been trading in tandem with equity markets the last couple of days as volatility is spilling over. That can explain Wednesday’s big rally and Thursday’s sell off. That could continue today as the marketplace remains keyed in on the broader marketplace with U.S. stocks expected to open higher this morning. Cash cattle trade points to sharply lower prices this week, averaging $207.85 so far. Wholesale beef ended Thursday lower as Choice cutout fell $3.57 to $334.29 and Select sunk $5.65 to $314.96.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as falling pork cutout weighs on the market. Pork cutout continues to make new lows, falling $1.06 to $89.70 on Thursday, led by loses in ribs and loins. Grocer demand has been robust given lower prices though, as movement increased to 357.99 loads yesterday. The CME lean hog index is down another 33 cents to $87.67 as of April 9. April futures will go off the board on Monday and will cash settle against the index quote for that date on April 16.