GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: 1 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn led strength overnight as corn and wheat both extended Monday’s report driven gains. Soybeans followed to the upside. Markets remain skittish ahead of tomorrow’s tariff ‘Liberation Day’ and what that might entail for repercussion from trading partners. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is up about 125 points.
Bloomberg reports that the U.S. is preparing to deliver a long-anticipated verdict on China’s compliance with the 2020 “Phase 1” trade deal — a review that could escalate tensions between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during an already high-stakes week for U.S./China relations. The review, ordered by Trump on his first day back in office, focuses on whether Beijing upheld its pledge to purchase an additional $200 billion in U.S. goods — a target that official data shows was missed. The findings could influence a range of decisions, including whether to revoke China’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status, a move likened to slapping a 30% tariff on Chinese goods.
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins engaged in a series of events and discussions centered on agriculture, biofuels, trade policy, and farmer support. Rollins announced $537 million in funding under the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program (HBIIP) to support 543 biofuel infrastructure projects across 29 states. This funding aims to expand access to higher ethanol blends like E15, benefiting both farmers and consumers by increasing demand for corn and reducing fuel costs. Rollins addressed concerns about potential retaliatory tariffs as President Trump prepares to announce new global tariffs. She expressed hope that renegotiations would benefit farmers but acknowledged that USDA is preparing for possible trade-aid payments if agricultural exports are negatively impacted.
USDA will report grain and oilseed crushings this afternoon. Crush is expected to have fallen month over month and year over year, given the shorter month. A Bloomberg report shows expectations for 188.6 million bushels of soybeans and 417.2 million bushels of corn being crushed in February.
CORN: May corn futures led overnight strength. Bulls are seeking to overcome 20-day moving average resistance at $4.63 1/4. Support stands at $4.58 1/2, the 10-day moving average, then $4.51 1/2 on selling pressure.
SOYBEANS: May soybean futures bounced overnight. Bulls are looking to challenge 40-day moving average resistance at $10.23 3/4 on continued strength, which capped yesterday’s gains. Support comes in at the 10-day moving average at $10.13 3/4 then $10.08 1/4.
WHEAT: May SRW futures saw continued strength overnight. The 10-day moving average capped overnight gains at $5.42 3/4, which is reinforced by psychological $5.50 resistance. Support comes in at $5.36 3/4 then $5.28 1/4 on a reversal lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone given steep discounts to the cash market, though recent selling could bleed over into today’s session. Last week’s cash cattle average fell a modest 62 cents from the previous week’s record, but remained strong at $212.14. Meanwhile, cutout turned higher Monday, as Choice cutout rose $2.44 to $335.26 while Select firmed $1.33 to $320.01.Rising beef prices have done little to offset the recent rally in cash cattle.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher as technical buying es expected to lift prices. Most active June futures saw heavy selling yesterday morning but closed well off intraday lows. Continued weakness in the CME lean hog index, which is down another 28 cents to $88.50 as of March 28, is likely discouraging traders, though fundamentals remain supportive. Wholesale pork continues to bounce from last week’s low, though demand has slowed as prices have risen. Cutout rose 89 cents to $97.45 Monday, though movement slid to 231.56 loads.