GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 10 to 12 cents higher.
Wheat: SRW 2 to 4 cents lower; HRW steady to 2 cents lower; HRS 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn pivoted near unchanged, soybeans led strength and winter wheat saw relative weakness overnight, though each saw an increase in buying pressure into the break. Export sales coming in near the upper end of expectations for each product supported prices this morning. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures have rebounded from recent weakness and the U.S. dollar index is around 300 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 118,000 MT of sorghum for delivery to China during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) in the U.S. grew at an annual rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024, up from 2.8% in the initial estimate and 1.4% in the first quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The upward revision was mainly due to increased consumer spending.
The Clean Fuels Alliance America has called on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to issue guidance on the 45Z clean fuel tax credit, including safe harbor provisions, by Sept. 1. The biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel industries are experiencing difficulties securing contracts and capital due to the lack of clarity on the credit, which is set to take effect on Jan. 1. The group emphasizes the urgent need for policy certainty to stabilize the market and meet project deadlines. The delay in issuing this guidance has prompted calls from industry groups and lawmakers for expedited action. They argue that without clear rules, the ability to secure contracts and make necessary investments is hindered, potentially disrupting project timelines and threatening the market for low-carbon fuels. The Treasury Department has not yet responded to these requests for accelerated guidance issuance.
French soft wheat exports outside the European Union are expected to fall to 4.1 MMT in 2024-25, down 60% from last year, Argus Media forecast. The firm forecasts exports within the bloc, however, would be only slightly lower than last season’s 6.3 MMT, Argus kept its estimate of this year’s French soft wheat production at 25.17 MMT. That would be down 27% from the five-year average and the smallest crop since the 1980s.
Export sales for the week ended August 22:
Corn: Net sales of 15,300 MT for 2023-24 – a marketing year low. Net sales totaled 1.494 MMT for 2024-25, which were above expectations. Increases for new crop came primarily for Mexico, unknown destinations and Japan. Traders expected sales from -100,000 to 200,000 MT for 2023-24 and 700,000 MT to 1.4 MMT for 2024-25. Exports of 1.049 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales reductions of 143,600 MT for 2023-24. Net sales totaled 2.616 MMT for 2024-25. Increases for new-crop came primarily for China and unknown destinations. Sales were within expectations from -150,000 to 150,000 MT for 2023-24 and above expectations of 1.5 to 2.5 MMT for 2024-25. Exports of 542,300 MT.
Wheat: Net sales of 532,100 MT for 2024-25, up 8% from the previous week and 53% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for the Philippines, South Korea and Guatemala. Sales came within expectations of 300,000 to 650,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports totaled 576,800 MT.
CORN: December corn futures traded in a narrow range near unchanged overnight. Resistance stems from $3.93 1/2, the 10-day moving average, with further strength seeking to overcome resistance at $3.95 1/2. Support lies at $3.88 3/4 then the contract low at $3.85.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures rebounded from Wednesday’s loss overnight. Bulls are back at challenging stiff resistance at $9.92 1/4, which is reinforced by the psychological $10.00 mark. Support stems from $9.80 3/4 then tentative uptrend support at $9.70.
WHEAT: December SRW futures gave up most of Wednesday’s gain overnight. The 10-day moving average at $5.40 1/4 serves up initial resistance, which is reinforced by resistance at $5.48. Support comes in at $5.35 then the contract low at $5.20 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as wholesale beef prices continue to weaken. Choice cutout fell $4.68 to $307.29 on Wednesday, the lowest level since mid-May. Select dropped $2.62 to $297.63. That tightened the Choice/Select spread to $9.66, well below year-ago and the average for this time of year. Cash cattle trade has yet to begin this week, having a late start as expected. The lack of trade gives little direction to futures, which could lead to indecisive, choppy trade. USDA reported net beef sales of 17,200 MT for 2024, up 8% from the previous week but down 4% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as seasonal pressure in the cash market is likely to weigh on futures. Pork cutout fell 77 cents to $95.28 on Wednesday, though that’s 73 cents above last week’s low and $1.65 higher than the July low. Losses in bellies an butts led cutout lower. Movement has slowed as packers have completed their purchases for Labor Day features. The CME lean hog index is down another 37 cents to $87.45 as of Aug. 28. While seasonal pressure has resurfaced in the hog and pork markets, it is not uncommon for relative strength to return in September. USDA reported net pork sales of 42,200 MT for 2024, up notably from the previous week and 59% from the four-week average.