GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents higher.
Wheat: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans saw relative strength overnight while grains traded near unchanged, each saw increased buying pressure into the break. The recent rally in crude oil futures has stalled but traders will continue to closely watch tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. dollar index is trading around 50 points lower this morning and near nine-month lows.
USDA reported daily sales of 127,760 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/25 marketing year.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn yield forecast at 183.5 bu. per acre, though he has a neutral to slightly lower bias as weather turned hotter and drier, noting if that pattern persists it could trim yields. He forecasts corn production at 15.17 billion bushels. Cordonnier left his soybean yield at 53.5 bu. per acre, with production estimated at 4.61 billion bushels.
USDA rated 65% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 13% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 67% “good” to “excellent” and 9% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn and soybean crops each dropped 4.4 points to 368.1 and 363.0, respectively, which are the lowest ratings of the growing season. Illinois led declines in both crops, falling 1.8 points for corn and 2.2 points for soybeans. USDA rated 69% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” and 10% “poor” to “very poor.” On the CCI, spring wheat crop fell 7.3 points to 372.9. Click here for details.
Argentine farmers are likely to plant more soybeans for the 2024-25 growing season, trimming the area dedicated to corn after the leaf hopper plague caused a corn stunt disease outbreak last year. The disease devastated an estimated 2 million hectares of corn in 2023-24. Of the 2 million hectares expected to be switched out of corn, a large part will go to soybeans, said Cristian Russo, head of agricultural estimates at the Rosario Grains Exchange. Also, the weather outlook for early September remained dry, with more rain forecast for October, another incentive for soybeans whose planting starts that month.
CORN: December corn futures were caught between soy strength and wheat weakness overnight. Support stems from the contract low of $3.85 then $3.80. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $3.90 then the 10-day moving average at $3.93 1/4.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to show relative strength. Bulls closed prices above the 10-day moving average at $9.79 1/4, marking that as initial support. Further weakness would encounter support at $9.75. Resistance stems from the 20-day moving average at $9.94.
WHEAT: December SRW futures continued lower overnight. Initial support stems from the contract low of $5.20 3/4 with further weakness finding support at $5.14 1/4. The psychological $5.25 mark stands as initial resistance, backed by the 10-day moving average at $5.39.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone, continuing the downtrend from the late July highs. October live cattle futures failed to clear downtrend resistance from the July highs yesterday, bringing selling pressure into the latter half of the session. Continued cash cattle weakness is expected as prices have fallen for four consecutive weeks and packers are expected to be well supplied for immediate needs. Wholesale beef prices ended Monday lower, as Choice cutout sunk $1.44 to $315.90 and Select dropped 27 cents to $300.19.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower on continued cash market weakness. October lean hog futures failed to find sustained buying above last Friday’s highs and finished mid-range on Monday, with followthrough selling pressure possible today. Recent futures strength has been heavily tied to discounts the lead contract holds to the cash index. Sinking pork cutout is likely to weigh on prices, as sharp drops in hams and bellies led whole cutout $4.07 lower to $94.98. The CME lean hog index is down another 36 cents to $87.86 as of Aug. 23, extending the pullback from the seasonal peak on Aug. 1.