GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 3 to 6 cents lower; HRS steady to 2 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans favored the upside overnight, but gains were pared into the break as selling took over grains, leading corn and wheat into the lows. Sales proved strong, coming in the upper end of expectations for new crop. Weather remains supportive though outside markets are not with front-month crude oil futures around 50 cents weaker and the U.S. dollar index over 400 points higher.
Scouts on day 3 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found an average corn yield of 193.72 bu. per acre in Illinois, up from 190.71 bu. per acre last year and the three-year average of 192.14 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1,270.61 for Illinois, up from 1,249.70 last year and the three-year average of 1,258.96.
In western Iowa, average corn yields for Districts 1, 4 and 7 were 182.58 bu., 167.71 bu. and 184.84 bu. per acre, respectively, compared to 183.37 bu., 188.74 bu. and 173.70 bu. per acre, respectively, in 2022. The three-year averages for Iowa Districts 1, 4 and 7 are 182.11 bu., 184.77 bu. and 183.64 bu. per acre, respectively.
Western Iowa pod counts for Districts 1, 4 and 7 averaged 1,137.24, 1,120.30 and 1,170.28, respectively, compared with 1,089.74, 1,258.94 and 1,223.85 in 2022. The three-year averages for Iowa Districts 1, 4 and 7 are 1,064.13, 1,220.53 and 1,251.83, respectively.
On Day 4 of the Crop Tour today, scouts will sample fields in eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota. The Tour concludes tonight in Rochester, Minnesota.
The central and western Midwest will continue to be drier than usual over the next ten days, maintaining crop stress. Temperatures are expected to remain hot today but will cool Friday and into the weekend, World Weather Inc says.
India is expected to ban mills from exporting sugar beginning in October, as a lack of rain has cut yields. The nation has already banned the export of wheat flour and some rice exports in an effort to control domestic prices. India has exported about 10% of the world’s sugar in recent years.
Export sales for the week ended Aug 17.
Corn: Net sales reductions of 22,700 MT for 2022-23, down noticeably from the previous week and the four-week average. Net sales of 673,500 MT for 2023-24, primarily to Mexico (351,400 MT). Traders expected sales of 0 to 250,000 MT for 2022-23 and 200,000 to 750,000 MT for 2023-24.
Soybeans: Net sales of 364,900 MT for 2022-23, up from net reductions from the previous week and nearly triple the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 1.218 MMT for 2023-24. Traders expected sales of 0 to 200,000 MT for 2022-23 and 550,000 to 1.25 MMT for 2023-24.
Wheat: Net sales of 406,000 MT for 2023-24, up 13% from the previous week and 3% from the four-week average. Traders expected sales of 250,000 to 450,000 MT for 2023-24.
CORN: December corn futures made a higher low compared to last week and bulls seem charged to challenge 20-day moving average resistance at $4.96. Next resistance would be Monday’s high of $5.06 1/4, though a string of daily closes above $5.00 would be a strong indication that a low is in place. Support can be expected at $4.86, then $4.80, with a firm line in the sand at last week’s low of $4.73 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures tested prior resistance turned support yesterday morning and confirmed support at $13.35. Price waned into the break but an uptrend remains on the daily bar chart, targeting resistance at Monday’s high of $13.81. That marks the June 21 and July 3 resistance zone as well, a daily close above which would look very bullish.
WHEAT: December SRW futures are in a tightening range on the daily bar chart, consolidating in what appears to be a bear-flag. The range is getting very tight with support at $6.33 and resistance at $6.42. A daily close on either side will help dictate direction, a bearish move would target last week’s low at $6.12 then the May low at $6.08 1/4. A break higher would target $6.54 resistance which has acted as an important pivot over the last three months.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open higher after yesterday’s bounce from support. Fundamentals remain supportive despite a lack of any cash trade thus far this week. Wholesale prices have remained firm for the most part, with Choice values steady yesterday at $317.05 and Select firming $2.08 to $291.59, bringing the Choice/Select spread to $25.46. Once reports of cash trade begin to circulate the market, that will likely dictate the short-term direction of futures.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower, though price is quickly approaching last week’s low. The technical rejection lower on Monday confirmed the recent downtrend and a lower low is likely, bulls need to establish a higher low as the first step of reestablishing bullish momentum. The CME lean hog index is seen as falling another 67 cents to $97.37 as of Tuesday, August 22. Wholesale prices continue to slide as well, falling $2.86 on the day to $100.79, extending yesterday’s midsession decline.