GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 2 cents lower
Soybeans: 5 to 8 cents lower
Wheat: 1 to 3 cents lower
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and wheat futures favored the downside in narrow trade overnight, while soybeans were moderately weaker amid continued weakness in meal futures. Traders will continue to assess reports from Crop Tour. The dollar is correctively higher, as are crude oil futures.
USDA reported daily sales of:
· 198,000 MT of soybeans to China during 2024-25.
· 105,000 MT of soybean cake and meal to Vietnam during 2024-25.
· 110,490 MT of corn to Mexico and 132,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2024-25.
Scouts on day 3 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found an average corn yield of 204.14 bu. per acre in Illinois, up from 193.72 bu. per acre last year and the three-year average of 193.58 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1,419.11 for Illinois, up from 1,270.1 last year and the three-year average of 1,266.70.
In western Iowa, average corn yields for Districts 1, 4 and 7 were 176.59 bu., 195.86 bu. and 191.59 bu. per acre, respectively, compared to 182.58 bu., 168.71 bu. and 184.84 bu. per acre, respectively, in 2023. The three-year averages for Iowa Districts 1, 4 and 7 are 182.55 bu., 183.54 bu. and 183.67 bu. per acre, respectively.
Western Iowa pod counts for Districts 1, 4 and 7 averaged 1,108.76, 1,254.09 and 1,366.22, respectively, compared with 1,137.24, 1,120.30 and 1,170.28 in 2023. The three-year averages for Iowa Districts 1, 4 and 7 are 1,105.44, 1,201.49 and 1,253.91, respectively.
On Day 4 of the Crop Tour today, scouts will sample fields in eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota. The Tour concludes tonight in Rochester, Minnesota.
Canada’s two largest railways, which account for nearly 80% of the national network, shut down early Thursday after failing to reach an agreement with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference. The shutdown, involving over 9,000 employees at Canadian National Railway Co. and Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd., immediately disrupted North American supply chains that handle about C$1 billion ($740 million) in trade daily. The stoppage is set to cripple shipments of grain, potash and coal while also slowing the transport of petroleum products, chemicals, and autos.
Export sales for the week ended August 15:
Corn: Net sales of 119,100 MT for 2023-24, a marketing-year low, were down 57% from the four-week average. Net sales totaled 1.3 MMT for 2024-25. Traders expected sales from 100,000 to 300,000 MT for 2023-24 and 500,000 MT to 1.025 MMT for 2024-25. Exports of 1.16 MMT rose 12% from the previous week.
Soybeans: Net sales reductions of 43,700 MT for 2023-24, a marketing-year low, were down noticeably from the four-week average. Net sales totaled 1.7 MMT for 2024-25. Sales were below expectations from 100,000 to 400,000 MT for 2023-24 and well above expectations of 800,000 MT to 1.350 MMT for 2024-25. Exports of 421,800 MT fell 2% from the previous week but up 6% from the four-week average.
Wheat: Net sales of 492,700 MT for 2024-25, up 45% from the four-week average. Sales came within expectations of 250,000 to 500,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports totaled 470,200 MT.
CORN: December corn futures traded narrowly near unchanged overnight. Resistance stems from the psychological $4.00 mark with reinforcement from last week’s high at $4.03 3/4. Support stems from $3.95 then the contract low of $3.90.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw relative weakness overnight. Initial resistance stems from $9.80, which is backed by this week’s high of $9.85, then the psychological $10.00 mark. Support comes in at $9.68 1/2 then the contract low of $9.57.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw relative strength overnight though faded into the break. Initial resistance lies at $5.48 though bulls are looking to close prices above formidable resistance at $5.48. Support lies at the contract low at $5.39 1/2 with further selling eyeing support at $5.28 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open mostly higher, building on late Wednesday’s strength. Ater facing persistent selling pressure over the past week, cattle futures rebounded late Wednesday, led by strength in feeders. Wholesale beef prices stabilized from recent weakness, with Choice cutout firming 13 cents to $315.21 and Select rising 4 cents to $301.08 Wednesday. Sharply lower trade in futures seemingly persuaded feedlots to accept lower packer bids, as cash trade picked up mid-week around $2.80 below last week’s average, which could limit buying interest after the open. USDA reported net beef sales of MT for 2024.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a weaker tone as pork cutout continues to slide lower. After rebounding at midsession and seemingly supporting futures on strong retailer demand, pork cutout ended Wednesday $2.99 lower to $94.55. Picnics were the only cut to end the day higher, with bellies, butts and hams leading the way lower. The CME lean hog index is down another 50 cents to $89.21 as of August 20, the lowest quote since July 16 but still 83 cents above the mid-July low. USDA reported net pork sales of MT for 2024.