GRAIN CALLS
Corn: unchanged to 2 cents higher
Soybeans: 4 to 5 cents higher
Wheat: 3 cents lower to 2 cents higher
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans favored the upside in overnight trade while wheat futures traded narrowly lower in persisting consolidative trade. The marketplace will tune into Day 3 of the Crop Tour as scouts extend into western Iowa on the western leg and western Illinois and eastern Iowa on the eastern leg. Outside markets are modestly supportive, with crude oil posting mild gains while the U.S. dollar is slightly weaker.
USDA reported daily sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China and 121,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2024-25.
Scouts on day 2 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found an average corn yield of 173.25 bu. per acre in Nebraska, up from 167.22 bu. per acre last year and the three-year average of 169.37 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square came in at 1,172.48 for Nebraska, up from last year at 1,060.02 and the three-year average of 1,150.06.
In Indiana, samples yielded an average corn yield of 187.54 bu. per acre, up from 180.89 bu. per acre last year and the three-year average of 184.07 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square totaled 1,409.02 for Indiana, up from 1,309.96 last year and the three-year average of 1,238.55.
On Day 3 of the Crop Tour, scouts on the western leg will sample fields in western Iowa, while scouts on the eastern leg will sample western Illinois and eastern Iowa.
New employment estimates due at 9:00 a.m. CT from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are expected to show a significant downward revision in job growth, potentially reducing net payroll gains by up to 500,000 for the 12 months ending in March 2024, according to Bloomberg. The estimates for downward revisions encompass a wide range, from JPMorgan’s expectation the BLS will revise down net payroll gains by 360,000 to Goldman Sachs’ estimate of one million. Even at 500,000, this would be the largest revision since 2019 and could reignite concerns about a weakening labor market, especially following a recent rise in unemployment to 4.3%. The anticipated revisions may influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on the depth of upcoming interest rate cuts, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell likely to address these concerns in his upcoming speech on Friday.
A shutdown of a swath of Canada’s freight rail network could begin shortly after midnight tonight. Maersk Line withdrew an earlier statement that was restricting cargoes, and says it is continuing to accept shipments. ITS Logistics says some Canada-bound ocean cargo is already diverting to U.S. West Coast ports. ITS executive Paul Brashier says rail shippers may seek truck transport, which could “drive rates through the roof overnight,” if they can find over-the-road capacity.
CORN: December corn futures were mostly higher overnight, but continue to trade narrowly as $4.00 has routinely served up resistance, which is backed by the 20-day moving average of $4.02. The 10-day moving average of $3.97 3/4 now serves as initial support, then at last week’s low of $3.90.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures were higher overnight, though resistance stands at $9.84 and is backed by $9.92 and psychological resistance at $10.00. Initial support lies at $9.69 and again at last week’s low of $9.55.
WHEAT: December SRW futures are modestly weaker, with support serving at $5.45 1/4, then at last week’s low of $5.39 1/2. Initial resistance stands at $5.60 1/2, then at $5.70 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of yesterday’s weakness. Steep discounts to the cash market could limit losses after the open. Light trade took place in Iowa on Monday, up modestly from last week’s average for the area. Significant movement in the cash market is unlikely ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report. Wholesale beef prices continue to falter, with Choice cutout dropping 47 cents to $315.08 and Select sinking 97 cents to $301.04 on Tuesday.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly higher tone as traders continue to tighten the discounts to the cash market. After gapping lower on Tuesday’s open, bulls managed to push higher for most of the day and closed nearer recent highs. Anticipation of improving pork demand has encouraged traders to reduce discounts in the fall and winter contracts, as consumer demand could translate to higher cash prices. The CME lean hog index is down another 24 cents to $89.71 as of August 19. Pork cutout was up 45 cents on Tuesday to $97.54, with all cuts except picnics gaining on the day.