GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each favored the downside overnight, though selling pressure was fairly limited. Attention will continue to be on Crop Tour as scouts move through Nebraska, Indiana and into Illinois. Outside markets are quiet this morning as both crude and the U.S. dollar index are trading modestly lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 239,492 MT of beans for delivery to Mexico, each during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Scouts on the first day of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found an average corn yield of 156.51 bu. per acre in South Dakota, down from 157.42 bu. per acre last year but up from the three-year average of 142.44 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square came in at 1,025.89 for South Dakota, up from 1,013 last year and from the three-year average of 960.42
In Ohio, samples yielded an average corn yield of 183.29 bu. per acre, down from 183.94 bu. per acre in 2023 and up from the three-year average of 181.06 bu. per acre. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square totaled 1,229.92 for Ohio, down from 1,252.93 in 2023 but above the three-year average of 1,193.31.
Today, scouts on the eastern leg of the Tour will sample routes from Noblesville, Indiana to Bloomington, Illinois, and scouts on the western leg will sample central and southern Nebraska.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn forecast unchanged at 183.5 bushels/acre with production of 15.17 billion bushels. He noted weather continues to be beneficial for grain filling though the next few weeks are likely to see soil moisture decline. Cordonnier left his bean yield estimate at 53.5 bushels/acre with production of 4.61 billion bushels. He has a neutral bias for both crops.
USDA rated 67% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 11% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 68% “good” to “excellent” and 8% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop dropped 1.1 points to 372.5, while the soybean crop slipped 0.4 point to 367.4. USDA rated 73% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On the CCI, spring wheat crop declined 1.7 points to 380.2. Click here for details.
CORN: December corn futures saw modest losses overnight. Prices have traded in a tight range the last few weeks, stiff resistance remains near $4.00 with further strength seeking to overcome resistance at $4.03 1/4. Support stems from $3.96 then the contract low of $3.92 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw modest losses overnight. Resistance stems from the 10-day moving average at $9.83 1/2, which is quickly backed by $9.86. Support lies at $9.62 1/2 then the contract low at $9.55.
WHEAT: December SRW futures traded in a tight range overnight. Initial resistance stands at $5.55 with further strength looking to overcome the 20-day moving average at $5.60 1/2. Support stems from $5.50 then the contract low of $5.39 1/2
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by steep discounts to the cash index. October futures closed higher on Monday despite cash cattle prices falling $2.20 from the previous week to $189.14. Wholesale beef prices are struggling to break above recent highs, as Choice cutout dipped $1.90 to $315.55 and Select fell 55 cents to $302.01 on Monday. Attention will remain on the cash market, though trade is likely to be pushed late into the week, per usual with a Cattle on Feed Report on Friday afternoon.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as cash fundamentals wain. While October futures surged on Monday, the resurgent weakness in the cash market is likely to weigh on futures, particularly the weakness in pork cutout. After brief strength last week, the CME lean hog index has continued its seasonal trend lower and is down 14 cents to $89.95 as of Aug. 16. Pork cutout continues to fall under pressure, led lower by big losses in bellies. Cutout is down $1.58 to $97.09.