GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Soybeans: 8 to 10 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat steady to 2 cents higher; HRS 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led strength overnight with corn seeing modest gains as well. Wheat saw relative weakness most of the overnight session though rebounded into the break. Outside markets saw volatility overnight as concerns continue to rise over a conflict in the Middle East and a weakening job market. Front-month crude oil futures are trading near recent lows and the U.S. dollar index is nearly 1000 points lower. Safe haven buying led precious metals and bonds sharply higher this morning.
USDA reported daily sales of 202,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024-25 marketing year.
The U.S. economy added 114k jobs in July 2024, below a downwardly revised 179k jobs in June and forecasts of 175k. It is the lowest jobs growth since November 2021. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the unemployment rate at 4.3% in July, above expectations of 4.1% and the highest reading since October 2021. Traders are anticipating a 50 basis point cut in the September Federal Reserve meeting following this morning’s data release, which shows the job market weakening at a quickened pace.
Commodity brokerage StoneX estimated U.S. corn production at 15.207 billion bu. on a yield of 182.3 bu. per acre. The firm estimated the soybean crop at 4.483 billion bu. on a 52.6 bu. per acre yield. In July, USDA projected corn production and yield at 15.1 billion bu. on a trendline yield of 181 bu. per acre. USDA’s July soybean projections were 4.425 billion bu. for production and 52 bu. per acre for yield. The StoneX estimates are based on survey of its customer and assume USDA’s harvested acreage.
France’s wheat harvest reached 67% as of July 29, according to the country’s ag ministry, well behind the five-year average of 84%. Heavy rains continue to hamper harvest progress and hurt yields and crop quality.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization global food price index slipped 0.2% in July, ending a three-month string of gains, as a drop in cereal grains outweighed increases in vegoils, meats and sugar, while the dairy index was almost unchanged. The July index was down 3.0% from last year. Compared to year-ago, prices declined 12.0% for cereal grains and 17.8% for sugar, while they rose 0.8% for meats, 7.2% for dairy and 4.0% for vegoils.
CORN: December corn futures followed soybeans higher overnight. Initial resistance stems from the prior low at $4.03 with further buying finding resistance at the 10-day moving average at $4.06 1/2. Bulls are aiming to hold prices above the $4.00 mark, with additional selling finding support at $3.95.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures rebounded overnight. Initial resistance stems from the overnight high of $10.30 3/4 with further strength seeking to overcome the 10-day moving average at $10.38 1/4. Support comes in at $10.21 1/4 then yesterday’s for-the-move low of $10.13.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw modest selling pressure most of the overnight session. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $5.58 3/4, the 10-day moving average, before tackling stiff resistance at $5.67 3/4. Support comes in at $5.48 1/2 then the contract low of $5.39 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open lower in a continuation of Thursday’s selling pressure. Much of Thursday’s weakness can be attributed to fund liquidation on the first day of the month, but lower cash cattle trade was reported as well, further steepening losses. October futures challenged uptrend support stemming from the April low and futures remain well below current cash prices, which could limit selling pressure after the open. Wholesale beef ended Thursday lower, halting the string of recent gains.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher on continued strength in cash fundamentals. The CME lean hog index is up another 45 cents to $93.53 as of July 31, extending the late seasonal climb. August futures have quickly tightened steep discounts to the index seen earlier this week but still closed 38 cents below the index. Pork cutout fell from yesterday’s midsession quote though was still up 98 cents on the day, led by strength in ribs, picnics and loins, though movement has slowed modestly from last week.