GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Wheat: 3 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn and soybeans saw buying pressure on last night’s open but faded from overnight highs early this morning. Wheat saw relative weakness. Outside markets are mixed as the U.S. dollar index is trading around 250 points lower and front-month crude oil futures are trading modestly lower.
USDA reported daily sales of 332,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 110,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Scouts will be sampling corn and soybean fields across the seven Crop Tour states over the next four days. Follow along with updates on our website and by searching #pftour24 on X (formerly Twitter). Scouts on the eastern leg of the tour are making their way today from Dublin, Ohio to Noblesville, Indiana. Those on the western leg are scouting fields between Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and Grand Island, Nebraska. Look for preliminary route reports from Tour leaders in “Evening Report” and on our website. We’ll release the Tour results for Ohio and South Dakota and stream the nightly results on our site tonight. The Pro Farmer corn and soybean crop estimates will be released Friday at 1:30 p.m. CT. Our “Crops Analysis” and “Livestock Analysis” reports will be replaced with “After the Bell” this week.
Rain fell across the central and eastern Midwest over the weekend, varying between 0.1 inch to a little over a half inch. Some localized areas received larger totals. Net drying occurred in the Delta, western Corn Belt and much of the western Plains. The forecast calls for net drying with warm temperatures, which should be good for crop maturation. A lack of extreme heat should leave favorable conditions for grain filling in the next few weeks.
Goldman lowers the odds of a U.S. recession within the next year from 25% to 20%, based on positive retail sales and jobless claims data. The bank indicated that if the August jobs report, to be released on Sept. 6, is strong, they might further lower the recession risk to 15%. Recent economic data showing resilience has boosted stocks, and Goldman now expects the Federal Reserve to likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points Sept. 18, though a significant drop in jobs could lead to a 50-basis point cut.
CORN: December corn futures saw modest buying overnight. Stiff resistance at $3.97 is reinforced by the psychological $4.00 mark. The contract low at $3.90 marks staunch support, with tentative backing from $3.85.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures struggled to maintain early overnight gains. Support lies at the contract low of $9.55 with reinforcement from the psychological $9.50 mark. Resistance stands at $9.68 1/2 then $9.75.
WHEAT: December SRW futures gave up Friday’s gain overnight. Bulls ae looking to overcome initial resistance at $5.51 then the 20-day moving average at $5.61. Support lies at $5.45 then the contract low of $5.39 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open lower in a continuation of Friday’s selling pressure. Traders continue anticipate a slowdown in the cash market, evidenced by steep discounts held in the late fall and winter contracts. Trade into Friday of last week was light though was averaging about $1.50 below the prior week. Weakness in futures likely favored packers in negotiations late in the week, causing weakness in the cash market. Trade is likely to be pushed late into the week with USDA releasing their monthly Cattle on Feed report on Friday. Wholesale beef ended the week strong, as Choice rose 51 cents and Select firmed 56 cents.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone on resurgent weakness in the cash market, though some technical buying could limit losses after the open. The bounce in the CME lean hog index was short lived, as the index is down 11 cents to $90.09 as of Aug. 15. After bouncing mid-week, wholesale pork prices continue to fall under pressure, with most cuts lower on Friday. Whole cutout was down $1.20 to $98.67.