GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher.
Wheat: 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat saw followthrough buying overnight, though selling pressure increased into the break. Outside markets surged higher this morning as strong retail sales were well above expectations, signaling robust consumer demand despite recent concerning data surrounding the jobs market. Front-month crude oil futures are trading modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is trading over 500 points higher.
Russian forces attacked port infrastructure in Ukraine’s southern city of Odesa on Wednesday evening, striking a Louis Dreyfus Company grain facility. The company said a missile hit the truck discharge bay at its Brooklyn Kyiv facility, but no employees were harmed and products stored in silos were undamaged. Repair work is not expected to “materially disrupt terminal operations” as there are alternative logistics options at the site.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) to report its members crushed 182.4 million bu. of soybeans during July, which would be the most ever for the month. The crush pace is expected to rise 3.9% from June and 5.2% from year-ago. Soyoil stocks as of July 31 were estimated at 1.608 billion pounds.
The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate for this year’s Argentine corn crop by 1.5 MMT to 49 MMT. The exchange expects corn production to be steady for the 2024-25 growing season.
Export sales for the week ended August 8:
Corn: Net sales of 120,500 MT for 2023-24—a marketing year low, down 75% from the previous week and 66% from the four-week average. Sales of 800,500 MT for 2024-25 were above expectations, increases came primarily for unknown destinations and Mexico. Traders expected sales from 300,000 to 550,000 MT for 2023-24 and 150,000 to 800,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports of 1.033 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 221,700 MT for 2023-24, down 32% from the previous week and 1% from the four-week average. Sales of 1.344 MMT for 2024-25. Sales came within expectations ranging from 100,000 to 500,000 MT for 2023-24 and above expectations of 400,000 MT to 1.000 MMT for 2024-25. Exports of 430,700 MT.
Wheat: Net sales of 399,900 MT for 2024-25, up 24% from the previous week but down 6% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico. Sales came within expectations of 200,000 to 500,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports of 502,100 MT.
CORN: December corn futures saw increased selling pressure into the break. Resistance stems from the 10-day moving average at $4.01 then $4.05 1/4. Support comes in at $3.97 1/4 then the contract low of $3.90 1/4.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw modest followthrough buying overnight. Bulls struggled to maintain prices above resistance at $9.75, which is reinforced by resistance at $9.94 3/4, the 10-day moving average. Support stems from $9.62 1/2 then the contract low of $9.55 1/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures continue to trade in a sideways chop. Bulls are seeking to overcome stiff resistance at $5.66 1/2 with further strength seeking to overcome the psychological $5.75 mark. Support lies at $5.51 3/4 then the contract low of $5.39 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher in a continuation of yesterday’s strength, but focus will remain on the cash cattle market. Cash cattle trade has been light to start the week, without enough volume to set a clear price trend. Feedlots are hoping Wednesdays futures’ strength will entice packers to raise cattle bids, though most cash sources feel prices will be steady/weaker. Wholesale beef prices ended Wednesday lower as Choice sunk $2.05 to $314.88 and Select fell 11 cents to $300.50. USDA reported net beef sales of 28,100 MT for 2024 — a marketing-year high, up notably from the previous week and nearly double the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open higher, building on Wednesday’s breakout from the downtrend stemming from the July highs. Even after yesterday’s surge, October futures continue to price in a bigger-than-average decline into the contract’s expiration in mid-October. The CME lean hog index is down another 16 cents to $90.18 as of Aug. 13, though the rate of the recent decline has been slowing and some strength appears to be returning to the index. Pork cutout dropped $1.02 to $99.31 on Wednesday, led lower by loins and hams, though movement remained firm at 340.5 loads. USDA reported net pork sales of 20,900 MT for 2024 — a marketing-year low, down 40% from the previous week and 30% from the four-week average.