GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 12 to 15 cents lower.
Wheat: Steady to 3 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Selling persisted most of the overnight session in corn, soybeans and wheat, though buying efforts increased into the break. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are facing modest profit-taking from yesterday’s three-week high and the U.S. dollar index is trading modestly.
USDA reported daily export sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans to China and 137,160 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Producer Price Inflation (PPI) rose less than expected in the month of July. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported producer inflation rose 0.1% month-over-month in July, following a 0.2% rise in June and below forecasts of 0.2%. Year-on-year, producer inflation decreased to 2.2% from an upwardly revised 2.7% in June. Core PPI came in at 2.4%, below expectations of 2.6% and well below a month ago at 3.0%. Equity markets rose on weaker than expected inflation as traders anticipate a rate cut sooner than later.
Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his U.S. corn yield by 1.5 bu. to 183.5 bu. per acre, noting generally favorable conditions and no threatening weather in the forecast. Cordonnier has adopted USDA’s new harvested acreage estimate of 82.71 million acres, which pushes his corn production forecast to 15.17 billion bushels. For soybeans, Cordonnier raised his yield by 1 bu. to 53.5 bu. per acre. At USDA’s harvested acreage figure of 86.27 million acres, his soybean production estimate is now 4.61 billion bushels.
After analyzing the FSA acreage data released on Monday, USDA total U.S. planted acres match very well with past years’ August data compared to final planted acres. There may be some individual states that could see adjustments, but we are comfortable using USDA’s acreage figures for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton.
USDA rated 67% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 10% “poor” to “very poor.” The soybean crop was rated 68% “good” to “excellent” and 8% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop dropped 0.9 point to 373.7 while the soybean crop slipped 0.7 point to 367.8. USDA rated 72% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On the CCI, spring wheat crop improved 1.2 points to 381.9, despite the overall ratings decline, as improvement in top producer North Dakota offset declines in some of the other states. Click here for details.
CORN: December corn futures gave up a portion of Monday’s gain overnight. Resistance lies at the 10-day moving average at $4.01 3/4 then $4.03. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $3.95 with further support stemming from the contract low of $3.90 1/4.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures saw followthrough selling overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $9.80 before tackling the psychological $10.00 mark. Initial support stems from the overnight low of $9.68, which is backed by the contract low of $9.64 1/4.
WHEAT: December SRW futures continue to trade in a tight range. Bulls are seeking to close prices above stiff resistance at $5.66 1/4. Support stems from Monday’s low of $5.52 with selling likely to accelerate below that mark.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as futures continue to anticipate a downdraft in the cash cattle market. Cash cattle averaged $191.34 last week, down $3.11 from the previous week and the lowest price since the first week of June. Traders anticipate continued weakness in the cash market, evidenced by steep discounts in futures, though that could limit selling pressure in nearby contracts after the open. Wholesale beef ended Monday higher, with Choice cutout firming $3.12 to $315.83 and Select firming $1.58 to $300.17, back above the $300.00 mark for the first time in a week.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower on technical selling and accelerating losses in the CME lean hog index. October futures stopped shy of overcoming stiff downtrend resistance on Monday, which is likely to weigh on prices today. The CME lean hog index is down 98 cents as of Aug. 9, extending the recent decline to six consecutive days during which losses have accelerated each day. Pork cutout continues to rebound from last week’s losses, firming $1.61 on Monday to $100.27, led by strength in bellies.