GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 3 to 5 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 7 to 9 cents lower; HRS 7 to 9 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat each saw sustained selling pressure overnight though saw a modest bounce into the break. Positioning is likely to drive price action ahead of today’s USDA reports. Front-month crude oil futures extended higher overnight and are trading near this month’s highs while the U.S. dollar index continues to bounce from last week’s seven-month low.
USDA reported daily sales of 165,000 MT of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year. USDA also reported sales of 300,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations, with 100,000 MT for delivery during the 2023-24 marketing year and the remaining 200,000 MT for the 2024-25 marketing year.
Most of the western Corn Belt is forecast to receive some rainfall this week, while eastern areas of the region as well as portions of Kentucky, the lower Delta and interior southeastern states should be mostly dry through Friday. Rains are expected across the eastern Corn Belt during the upcoming weekend and early next week. Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal across the Corn Belt this week, while the Delta and Tennessee River Basin are likely to see seasonal temps.
USDA’s Crop Production Report at 11:00 a.m. CT will feature the first survey-based corn and soybean crop estimates, based primarily off farmer responses and satellite imagery, along with the initial cotton crop estimate and updated wheat production. NASS will also incorporate FSA certified acreage data into its crop estimates. While USDA will also update old- and new-crop usage forecasts, the production estimates will be the focal point. Click here to view analysts’ pre-report expectations.
China’s ag ministry raised its 2023-24 soybean import forecast by 2.27 MMT to 98.37 MMT, as falling global soybean prices spurred importers to book more arrivals for the final months of the marketing year. The ministry left its 2024-25 import forecasts for corn and soybeans unchanged this month. Corn imports are expected to plunge 10 MMT (43.5%) to 13 MMT, while soybean imports are forecast to decline 3.77 MMT (3.8%) in 2024-25.
An Argentine oilseed workers’ strike extended into its seventh day today as wage negotiations with firms remained stalled. The strike has mainly affected terminals located north of Rosario along the Parana River, where more than 80% of Argentina’s agricultural exports are shipped. At least three dozen ships were still delayed on Sunday near Rosario.
CORN: December corn futures marked a contract low overnight. Initial resistance lies at $3.95 with further strength seeking to overcome psychological $4.00 resistance. Support lies at the contract low at $3.92 3/4 then $3.89 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to undergo selling pressure. Initial resistance lies at the psychological $10.00 mark then the 10-day moving average at $10.19. Support lies at the overnight low of $9.94 1/2 then $9.80.
WHEAT: December SRW futures saw sustained selling pressure overnight. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $5.66 1/2 then last week’s high of $5.74 3/4. Support lies at $5.55 1/2 then last week’s low of $5.44 1/2.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Higher.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open higher on followthrough buying. Cattle futures surged Friday, negating the potential bear flag pattern on the daily bar chart. Futures remain at steep discounts to the cash market, which is likely to be price supportive in the near term. Packer margins solidly in the red are likely to discourage them from paying up for cash cattle, which is likely to eventually weigh on futures. Wholesale beef prices firmed on Friday, ending a three-day skid as Choice rose 59 cents to $312.71 and Select firmed 56 cents to $298.59.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone as cash fundamentals continue to wane, though followthrough buying from Friday could limit losses after the open. The drop in pork cutout seen last week is weighing on the CME lean hog index, which is down 90 cents to $91.90 as of Aug. 8. That’s the fifth consecutive daily decline and the biggest drop since September of last year. Meanwhile, pork cutout firmed 43 cents to $98.66 Friday, led higher by picnics, though that is still a $5.65 drop from a week prior.