GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 to 3 cents lower.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat 2 to 4 cents higher; HRS 4 to 6 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat saw relative strength overnight while corn and soybeans saw modest selling pressure. Commodity futures as a whole saw strength overnight, which could lead to buying interest after the open. Front-month crude oil futures continue to bounce from recent lows and the U.S. dollar index is trading around 250 points higher.
USDA reported daily sales of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Top Iranian officials will meet the representatives of its regional allies from Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen to discuss potential retaliation against Israel after the killing of the Hamas leader in Tehran, five sources told Reuters. The region faces a risk of widened conflict between Israel, Iran and its proxies after Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran on Wednesday and the killing of Hezbollah’s senior commander on Tuesday in an Israeli strike on the outskirts of the Lebanese capital Beirut. Oil prices extended Wednesday’s strong gains amid the rising tensions. These developments came ahead of today’s meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at which ministers reportedly kept oil output unchanged, despite the rising tensions.
Analysts expect USDA to report soybean crush totaled 184.8 million bu. during June, which would be down 6.9 million bu. (3.6%) from May but up 10.2 million bu. (5.8%) from last year. Corn-for-ethanol use is expected to be 450.0 million bu., which would be down 3.7 million bu. (0.8%) from May but up 7.9 million bu. (1.8%) from last year.
China state stockpiler Sinograin will buy more new-crop wheat for reserves to support prices that are near three-year lows amid ample supplies and poor demand. The recent downpour in northern China, a major production hub for wheat, has worsened the glut as farmers rush to sell rather than risk moisture damage to their crops in storage. China reported a bumper wheat harvest of 138 MMT, 2.7% higher than last year. Meanwhile, imports in the first half of the year jumped 16% to 9.3 MMT. At the same time, China’s weak economy is hampering consumption of flour for items like noodles and bread. On Tuesday, Sinograin said it would increase wheat storage.
Export sales for the week ended July 25:
Corn: Net sales of 167,900 MT for 2023-24—a marketing year low, down 49% from the previous week and 60% from the four-week average. Sales of 710,900 MT for 2024-25. Traders expected sales from 275,000 to 600,000 MT for 2023-24 and 400,000 to 800,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports of 1.035 MMT.
Soybeans: Net sales of 376,400 MT for 2023-24, up noticeably from the previous week and from the four-week average. Sales of 632,100 MT for 2024-25. Sales came above expectations ranging from 75,000 to 300,000 MT for 2023-24 and within expectations of 300,000 to 900,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports of 565,600 MT.
Wheat: Net sales of 286,600 MT for 2024-25, down 7% from the previous week and 41% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Indonesia and the Philippines. Sales came in the lower end of expectations of 250,000 to 550,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports of 454,200 MT.
CORN: December corn futures saw followthrough selling overnight. Bulls are seeking to claim $4.00 resistance before tackling the 10-day moving average at $4.07 3/4. Support comes in at the overnight low of $3.97 1/2 then $3.90 1/2.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures continue to trade near recent lows. Resistance stems from yesterday’s high of $10.31 which is backed by $10.41 3/4. Support comes in at Wednesday’s for-the-move low at $10.15 then the psychological $10.00 mark.
WHEAT: December SRW futures led strength overnight. Initial resistance stems from the 10-day moving average at $5.59 1/4 and is reinforced by $5.67 3/4. Support stems from $5.52, which has attracted a significant amount of volume. Further selling eyes support at $5.47.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone as choppy trade is likely to continue, awaiting guidance from the cash cattle market. Cash cattle trade has been slow to start the week as expected despite relatively large showlist numbers. Trade developing the next few days is likely to drive price action in futures. Wholesale beef ended Wednesday mixed though movement remains quite strong at 145 loads despite the typical summer doldrums, indicating solid retailer demand. Choice cutout firmed 29 cents to $314.77 as Select sunk $1.22 to $300.16. USDA reported net beef sales of 17,700 MT for 2024, up 32% from the previous week and 35% from the four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a firmer tone, building on Wednesday’s strength. Futures remain well below last week’s peak despite continued strength in the CME lean hog index, which is up another 49 cents to $93.08 as of July 30, the 13th consecutive daily gain. During that span, the cash index has firmed $4.70. The rally in the cash market has been more robust than traders expected, which is likely to support futures in the meantime. Pork cutout ended Wednesday 72 cents lower to $104.88, led by weakness in hams and ribs. USDA reported net pork sales of 31,500 MT for 2024, up 5% from the previous week but down 10% from the four-week average.