GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 6 to 8 cents lower.
Soybeans: 5 to 13 cents lower.
Wheat: HRW and SRW 7 to 12 cents lower, spring wheat 2 to 5 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grain and soybean futures fell under profit-taking pressure overnight and may sustain losses after USDA reported slower weekly export sales. Malaysian palm oil futures ended little-changed, while U.S. crude oil futures are trading slightly higher this morning. U.S. stock index futures point to a firmer open and the U.S. dollar index is down more than 200 points.
Chinese crushers are slowing their soybean purchases for summer delivery amid poor production margins. Only 20% of China’s soybean needs for June-September, which are expected to be 7 MMT to 8 MMT per month, have been covered, Reuters reported. But buying isn’t expected to pick up unless margins improve.
Ukraine has planted 2.5 million hectares of spring-planted crops so far this year, 20% of expected area, according to the Ukrainian ag ministry. The country has warned of a potential decline of 20% in plantings this year due to the Russian invasion, and reports quoted ag ministry officials as saying the drop could be 30% to 40% in the northern areas of the country as mines will need to be removed.
Russia may harvest a record 2022 wheat crop of 87.4 MMT, Russian consultancy SovEcon said today, raising its previous forecast of 86.5 MMT. The forecast was raised due to excellent crop conditions and good availability of crop nutrients.
The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimates of Argentina’s soybean and corn crops, citing better-than-expected bean yields and an upward adjustment in corn planted area. The exchange now forecasts the country’s soybean crop at 41.2 MMT, up 1.2 MMT from its previous estimate. The corn crop estimate was raised 1.5 MMT to 49.2 MMT.
Taiwan purchased 47,120 MT of U.S. milling wheat. Japan purchased 27,320 MT of Australian wheat from its weekly tender.
CORN: USDA reported net U.S. corn sales for 2021-22 totaling 879,200 MT during the week ended April 14, down 34% from the previous week and down 6% from the average for the previous four weeks. China bought 675,200 MT, including decreases of 5,600 MT. Net weekly sales for 2022-23 totaled 389,600 MT, led by China at 340,000 MT. Sales fell short of trade expectations, which ranged from 950,000 to 1.5 MMT for 2021-22 and 400,000 to 800,000 MT for 2022-23.
SOYBEANS: Net weekly sales of 460,200 MT for 2021-22 were down 16% from the previous week and down 39% from the prior four-week average. China led buyers at 496,400 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations” and decreases of 5,000 MT. Net sales for 2022-23 totaled 1.24 MMT, also led by China, at 669,000 MT. Sales for 2021-22 were at the low end of trade expectations, while 2022-23 sales topped expectations ranging from 200,000 to 950,000 MT.
WHEAT: Net weekly sales totaled 26,300 MT for 2021-22, a marketing-year low, down 73% from the previous week and down 79% from the prior four-week average. Net sales totaled 238,400 MT for 2022-23. Exports of 504,000 MT were up 48% from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Sales were expected to range from zero to 350,000 MT for 2021-22 and 150,000 to 400,000 MT for 2022-23.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Steady-firmer
HOGS: Steady-weaker
CATTLE: Live cattle futures may extend yesterday’s sharp rally to two-month highs behind cash market strength. Additional cash cattle traded in the $140 to $141 range in the Southern Plains on Wednesday, while prices reached $147 live and $238 dressed in the northern market. Strong cash cattle trade the past two weeks suggests feedlots are more current than slaughter weights imply, especially in the northern market. Choice beef cutout values fell $1.11 yesterday to $268.82 but movement was strong at 137 loads.
USDA reported net weekly beef sales of 15,000 MT for 2022, down 13% from the previous week and down 27% from the prior four-week average.
HOGS: Lean hog futures may see further pressure from eroding chart patterns, but continued strength in key cash benchmarks may eventually lure in fresh buying. The CME lean hog index is up another 43 cents today (as of April 19), marking the sixth consecutive daily gain. Even after sharp losses on Wednesday, June lean hog futures still finished nearly $18 above today’s cash index quote. Buying in summer-month hogs may be limited until the cash market shows stronger price gains. Pork cutout values rose $1.37 yesterday to $108.49, ending a sharp two-day drop, but retailers have often backed away recently from prices at or above $110.00.
Net weekly pork sales totaled 12,900 MT for 2022, a marketing-year low, down 46% from the previous week and down 55% from the prior four-week average. USDA reported a net sales reduction of 100 MT to China.