Your Pro Farmer newsletter (December 2, 2023) is now available

Brazil’s weather has improved enough to temporarily stabilize crops, though additional rains will be needed across dry central and northeastern areas of the country to support crop development. Given ongoing soybean planting delays due to the dry conditions, more Brazilian farmers are likely to switch acres to cotton instead of risking growing soybeans followed by safrinha corn. USDA won’t update its corn and soybean crop estimates in its Dec. 8 reports; only a revised cotton production forecast this month. Any changes to domestic use in the 2023-24 balance sheets will likely be limited. The bigger focus in the December crop reports will be global production forecasts, especially for South America. The drought footprint in winter wheat country is shrinking but still covered 38% of U.S. acres as of Nov. 28. The final crop condition ratings of the fall equated to an average HRW crop and above-average SRW crop on our weighted Crop Condition Index. On the economic front, U.S. inflation continues to cool, which suggests the Fed’s monetary tightening cycle has likely concluded, which is weighing on the dollar. From a global perspective, economic growth is likely to decline in 2024 before rebounding in 2025. We cover all of these items and much more in this week’s newsletter, which you can download here.