Crop Tour is a fact-finding mission with a goal of getting a strong, objective view of corn yield potential from one big field across the seven states we sample during the third full week of August. While that’s the objective every year, it’s nearly impossible to block out all the data we’ve gathered about the crop ahead of Crop Tour. In fact, some of that data helps shape Pro Farmer’s opinion of crops outside of the areas we pull samples from on Crop Tour.
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Heading into this year’s tour, we knew there were areas that received excessive moisture through June in northwestern areas of the Corn Belt that resulted in some lost acres due to flooding and washouts. We also knew southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt that trended drier through June received timely rains ahead of pollination. From our 31 previous years of experience and data collecting, we know the recipe for a strong yield is to rush the crop to pollination and then slow it down through grain fill.
As of July 7, corn development was ahead of average, with 24% of the crop silking (five-year average of 14%) and 3% in dough stage (average of 2%). Early conditions for pollination were favorable. The second portion of the yield formula is grain fill, which will be determined from mid-July into harvest.
As of July 7, USDA rated the U.S. corn crop as 68% good to excellent and 9% poor to very poor. The good/excellent rating was one point above the 10-year average. Of the seven states we sample from on Crop Tour, only Minnesota had a lower-than-average rating for corn as pollination began (59% good/excellent versus a 10-year average of 70.2%). The others: Illinois 67% versus 62.4%; Indiana 67% versus 59.2%; Iowa 76% versus 74.6%; Nebraska 80% versus 73%; Ohio 74% versus 61%; and South Dakota 72% versus 63.7%.
There’s no direct correlation between crop condition ratings and final yield. Last year was a good example, as corn crop conditions ran below average throughout the growing season, but the final yield was a record 177.3 bu. per acre. However, there tends to be a stronger yield correlation as the growing season progresses. While conditions were below average last year, they didn’t post the typical decline after pollination, which was a precursor to the strong result.