Weekly new-crop export sales prove solid

Weekly new-crop corn and soymeal sales for the week ended July 18 each exceeded analyst’s expectations, while new-crop soybean sales were within the upper-end of the pre-report range.

grain ship.jpg
(Chip Flory)

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report

Week Ended July 18, 2024

Corn

Actual Sales (in MT)

2023-24: 331,400

Expectations (in MT)

2023-24: 200,000-700,000

Actual Sales (in MT)

2024-25: 745,200

Expectations (in MT)

2024-25: 100,000-600,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 331,400 MT for 2023/2024 were down 24 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (122,400 MT, including 62,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 700 MT), Mexico (106,900 MT, including 26,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,300 MT), South Korea (81,200 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (68,800 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,700 MT), and Ireland (20,000 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for unknown destinations (71,300 MT), Costa Rica (27,700 MT), Honduras (8,300 MT), Guatemala (6,400 MT), and Morocco (1,000 MT). Net sales of 745,200 MT for 2024/2025 were primarily for Japan (248,000 MT), Mexico (178,900 MT), unknown destinations (151,700 MT), Colombia (50,000 MT), and Honduras (44,100 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 1,209,800 MT were up 10 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4- week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (518,500 MT), South Korea (275,100 MT), Japan (208,400 MT), Colombia (95,800 MT), and Guatemala (31,100 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are 37.4% ahead of a year-ago, compared to 37.7% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2023-24 at 2.225 billion bu., 33.9% above the previous marketing year.

Wheat

Actual Sales (in MT)

2024-25: 309,300

Expectations (in MT)

2024-25: 300,000-625,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 309,300 metric tons (MT) for 2024/2025 were down 47 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (105,000 MT), Nigeria (58,800 MT, including 56,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 200 MT), Japan (50,500 MT), Italy (42,300 MT, including decreases of 6,700 MT), and Brazil (33,000 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (54,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (5,000 MT), Nicaragua (2,000 MT), and China (100 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 271,500 MT were down 57 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4- week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (64,700 MT), Nigeria (58,800 MT), Japan (47,300 MT), Brazil (33,000 MT), and Guatemala (22,400 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are 48.1% ahead of year-ago, compared to 48.8% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2024-25 exports are projected at 825 million bu.

Soybeans

Actual Sales (in MT)

2023-24: 88,600

Expectations (in MT)

2023-24: 100,000-400,000

Actual Sales (in MT)

2024-25: 829,700

Expectations (in MT)

2024-25: 500,000-900,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 88,600 MT for 2023/2024 were down 61 percent from the previous week and 63 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for the Netherlands (114,500 MT, including 122,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 7,500 MT), Indonesia (76,300 MT, including 62,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,900 MT), Japan (19,500 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), China (19,400 MT), and Vietnam (14,200 MT), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (188,900 MT), Costa Rica (14,800 MT), and Mexico (300 MT). Net sales of 829,700 MT for 2024/2025 were primarily for unknown destinations (723,100 MT), Algeria (45,000 MT), Portugal (17,500 MT), Indonesia (14,800 MT), and Costa Rica (14,800 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 368,500 MT were up 84 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to the Netherlands (114,500 MT), Mexico (97,600 MT), Indonesia (95,000 MT), Vietnam (13,200 MT), and Malaysia (12,300 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are running 14.0% behind a year-ago, compared to 13.7% behind last week. USDA projects exports in 2023-24 at 1.700 billion bu., down 14.1% from the previous marketing year.

Soymeal

Actual Sales (in MT)

2023-24: 258,100

Expectations

2023-24: 50,000-400,000

Actual Sales (in MT)

2024-25: 520,900

Expectations

2024-25: 225,000-400,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 258,100 MT for 2023/2024 were up 23 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for the Philippines (92,700 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Colombia (54,000 MT), Morocco (27,900 MT, including 28,300 MT switched from Turkey and decreases of 3,300 MT), Mexico (18,200 MT, including decreases of 1,700 MT), and Indonesia (13,600 MT), were offset by reductions for Turkey (30,000 MT), Japan (600 MT), Jamaica (300 MT), and Kuwait (100 MT). Net sales of 520,900 MT for 2024/2025 were primarily for unknown destinations (341,800 MT), Ecuador (90,000 MT), Guatemala (24,800 MT), Vietnam (19,500 MT), and Nicaragua (14,800 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 185,800 MT were up 12 percent from the previous week, but down 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Morocco (45,100 MT), Guatemala (28,100 MT), the Dominican Republic (27,800 MT), Mexico (21,600 MT), and Canada (16,200 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are 11.1% ahead of a year-ago, compared to 10.5% ahead last week. USDA projects exports in 2023-24 will increase 10.0% from the previous marketing year in 2022-23.

Soyoil

Actual Sales (in MT)

2023-24: 6,900

Expectations

2023-24: 0-10,000

Actual Sales (in MT)

2024-25: 3,100

Expectations

2024-25: 0-15,000

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 6,900 MT for 2023/2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Venezuela (6,000 MT) and Canada (600 MT), were offset by reductions for the Dominican Republic (300 MT). Net sales reductions of 3,100 MT for 2024/2025 resulting in increases for Canada (600 MT) and the Dominican Republic (300 MT), were more than offset by reductions for Mexico (4,000 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 11,200 MT were up 71 percent from the previous week, but down 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were to Venezuela (5,000 MT), Mexico (2,700 MT), Colombia (1,900 MT), and Canada (1,600 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Export commitments are running 65.7% ahead of a year-ago, compared 63.1% ahead last week. USDA projects exports will increase 45.5% in 2023-24.

Cotton

Actual Upland Sales (in RB)

2023-24: 74,200

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales reductions of Upland totaling 74,200 RB for 2023/2024--a marketing[1]year low--were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Mexico (1,800 RB), Thailand (600 RB), Indonesia (500 RB), and Pakistan (400 RB), were more than offset by reductions primarily for Vietnam (42,400 RB), Turkey (10,700 RB), Nicaragua (7,000 RB), China (6,300 RB), and India (4,500 RB). Net sales of 285,900 RB for 2024/2025 were primarily for Mexico (64,500 RB), Vietnam (58,200 RB), Turkey (52,600 RB), India (28,400 RB), and China (21,100 RB).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 131,300 RB were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to China (32,600 RB), Vietnam (27,800 RB), Pakistan (15,900 RB), Bangladesh (11,000 RB), and Mexico (10,200 RB). Net sales reductions of Pima totaling 100 RB for 2023/2024--a marketing-year low-- were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Turkey (100 RB), were more than offset by reductions for Vietnam (200 RB). Net sales of 4,900 RB for 2024/2025 were reported for Vietnam (2,200 RB), Peru (1,400 RB), India (800 RB), Taiwan (400 RB), and Guatemala (100 RB). Exports of 2,300 RB were down 47 percent from the previous week and 55 percent from the prior 4- week average. The destinations were primarily to Peru (1,100 RB), India (800 RB), Turkey (300 RB), and Vietnam (100 RB).

Comments and Performance Indicators

Upland cotton export commitments are running 7.3% behind a year ago, compared to 6.6% behind last week. USDA forecasts total cotton exports will fall 9.2% from a year ago to 11.60 million bales in 2023-24.

Beef

Actual Sales (in MT)

2024: 13,400

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 13,400 MT for 2024 were down 13 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (4,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (2,200 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), China (1,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Hong Kong (1,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 16,300 MT were up 5 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,300 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT), China (2,500 MT), Mexico (1,600 MT), and Taiwan (1,300 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

USDA projects 2024 exports will fall 4.3% from a year ago.

Pork

Actual Sales (in MT)

2024: 30,200

Weekly Sales Details

Net sales of 30,200 MT for 2024 were up 28 percent from the previous week, but down 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (7,700 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), South Korea (6,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (4,500 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Colombia (3,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and China (2,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).

Weekly Export Details

Exports of 32,900 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (13,200 MT), Japan (5,000 MT), China (3,900 MT), South Korea (2,700 MT), and Canada (2,100 MT).

Comments and Performance Indicators

USDA projects exports in 2024 will rise 6.2% from last year.