Weather took a bigger toll on corn, soybeans and winter wheat ratings than market expected

Amount of top-rated corn drops four points… Ninety-six of the U.S. corn crop has emerged, USDA reports, which is five percentage points ahead of the five-year average. But the bigger focus is on crop ratings after recent Midwest heat and dry weather in the northern and western Corn Belt that contrasted with wetter conditions to the south and east. USDA now rates 68% of the U.S. corn crop “good” to “excellent” (G/E), which is a four-point slide from last week and a point lower than analysts expected on average. Last year at this time, 71% of the crop received to marks. But USDA still rates just 5% of the crop “poor” to “very poor.”

Weather extremes take a toll on the U.S. bean crop… USDA now rates just 62% of the U.S. soybean crop G/E, a five-point dive from the week prior and a full 10 percentage points below year-ago. Analysts had expected USDA to rate 65% of the crop G/E. Eight percent of the crop is now rated “poor” to “very poor” (P/VP), a three-point rise from last week. Hot, dry weather in the Upper Midwest and western Corn Belt have stressed the newly planted crop, some of which was nipped by a late-May freeze. Meanwhile, some more southerly producers have dealt with too much moisture.

As of Sunday, USDA reports 94% of the crop has been seeded and 86% of it has emerged, which compares to 88% planted and 74% emerged on average for this time of year.

Dramatic reversal of fortune for the 2021 spring wheat crop… USDA now rates just 37% of the spring wheat crop G/E, down a point from last week but just above the 36% G/E rating analysts surveyed by Reuters anticipated. Last year at this time, an impressive 81% of the crop fell in the top two categories.

Of note, 27% of the crop is now rated P/VP, a two-point gain from the week prior. In top-producing North Dakota, just 29% of the crop is rated G/E and more than a third of the crop falls in the P/VP categories.

USDA reports 96% of the spring wheat crop has emerged and 8% of it is headed, both of which are a point or two ahead of the five-year average.

Winter wheat ratings also come in lower than expected, with harvest barely advancing… Harvest advanced just two percentage points over the past week to 4% complete, which was well shy of the 10% done analysts polled by Reuters expected or the 15% national average for this time of year. Wet weather likely slowed efforts.

USDA also delivered an unexpected two-point decline in condition ratings, with 48% of the crop now rated G/E. That’s two points lighter than expected and year-ago. Of note, the department now rates 20% of the crop P/VP, a two-point increase for the week.

Cotton ratings a bit of a mixed bag… As of Sunday, USDA rates 45% of the U.S. cotton crop G/E, which is a one-point dip from the week prior. But that masks a three-point jump in the amount of crop rated “excellent.” The amount of crop rated “poor” to “very poor” also fell six percentage points. The data signals recent moisture for Texas—including West Texas—benefited crops, despite soaring for some areas of the state over the weekend.

USDA reports 90% of the crop has been seeded and 13% of it is squaring. While planting is a point ahead of the national average, the amount of crop squaring lags the norm by three percentage points.