ENSO-neutral continued in November, but models continue to predict a weak and short-lived La Niña this winter, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The latest CPC forecast puts 59% odds a weak La Niña event will develop in the November-January period, rising above 70% during December-February, with 61% odds conditions will transition to ENSO-neutral by March-May.
CPC said, “Weak La Niña conditions would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance.”
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts ENSO will remain in the neutral range throughout the forecast period to April 2025, noting this is consistent with four of the six other international climate models it surveyed.
Japan’s weather bureau said characteristics of La Niña will become clearer during the winter, while there is a 70% chance of conditions returning to neutral toward spring.