USDA will update its old-crop usage forecasts in the May 10 Supply & Demand Report. But the main feature will be the first official 2024-25 balance sheets. USDA is expected to project new-crop ending stocks will rise sharply from the current marketing year for corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton. USDA will also issue its first winter wheat crop estimates. The following pre-report estimates are from Reuters; Bloomberg for cotton.
Expectations for U.S. Winter Wheat Production | |
All wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.888 |
Range | 1.775 – 1.970 |
USDA 2023 | 1.812 |
| |
Winter wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.316 |
Range | 1.210 – 1.395 |
USDA 2023 | 1.248 |
| |
HRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 695 |
Range | 570 – 780 |
USDA 2023 | 601 |
| |
SRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 404 |
Range | 343 – 486 |
USDA 2023 | 449 |
| |
White winter wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 212 |
Range | 190 – 233 |
USDA 2023 | 198 |
| |
Expectations for U.S. Carryover | ||
Corn – billion bushels |
| |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
Average est. | 2.100 | 2.284 |
Range | 2.007 – 2.172 | 2.032 – 2.513 |
USDA April | 2.122 | NA |
|
| |
Soybeans – million bushels |
| |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
Average est. | 339 | 431 |
Range | 304 – 365 | 315 – 552 |
USDA April | 340 | NA |
|
| |
Wheat – million bushels |
| |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
Average est. | 696 | 786 |
Range | 658 – 713 | 705 – 879 |
USDA April | 698 | NA |
|
| |
Cotton – million bales |
| |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
Average est. | NA | 3.49 |
Range | NA | 2.70 – 4.25 |
USDA April | 2.50 | NA |
Expectations for Global Carryover | ||
Corn – MMT | ||
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
Average est. | 314.68 | 317.84 |
Range | 311.00 – 317.22 | 313.00 – 321.20 |
USDA April | 318.28 | NA |
|
| |
Soybeans – MMT | ||
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
Average est. | 112.35 | 120.87 |
Range | 111.01 – 115.00 | 115.00 – 130.20 |
USDA April | 114.22 | NA |
|
| |
Wheat – MMT | ||
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
Average est. | 256.90 | 257.37 |
Range | 250.00 – 259.00 | 241.79 – 264.40 |
USDA April | 258.27 | NA |
|
| |
Cotton – million bales | ||
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
Average est. | NA | 83.49 |
Range | NA | 78.00 – 86.00 |
USDA April | 83.34 | NA |