USDA’s monthly Supply & Demand Report on Tuesday will consider trade policies currently in place at the time of publication and assume those will remain throughout the forecast time period. President Donald Trump suspended tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April 2 for goods covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, but non-USMCA-compliant goods face duties. Additional Chinese tariffs on U.S. ag goods kicked in today. The Chinese duties include a 15% additional tariff on corn, wheat and cotton; 10% for soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef and dairy products. The following pre-report estimates are from a Reuters survey; Bloomberg for cotton.
| Expectations for U.S. Carryover |
| Corn – billion bushels | |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 1.516 |
| Range | NA | 1.415 – 1.630 |
| USDA February | 1.763 | 1.540 |
|
|
| Soybeans – million bushels | |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 379 |
| Range | NA | 365 – 395 |
| USDA February | 342 | 380 |
|
| Wheat – million bushels | |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 797 |
| Range | NA | 779 – 835 |
| USDA February | 696 | 794 |
|
| Cotton – million bales | |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 4.93 |
| Range | NA | 4.70– 5.20 |
| USDA February | 3.15 | 4.90 |
| Expectations for Global Carryover |
| Corn – MMT |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 289.93 |
| Range | NA | 288.00 – 291.60 |
| USDA February | 315.81 | 290.31 |
| |
| Soybeans – MMT |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 124.56 |
| Range | NA | 122.20 – 126.00 |
| USDA February | 112.49 | 124.34 |
| |
| Wheat – MMT |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 257.62 |
| Range | NA | 256.00 – 259.34 |
| USDA February | 267.49 | 257.56 |
| |
| Cotton – million bales |
| 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Average est. | NA | 78.60 |
| Range | NA | 78.00 – 79.10 |
| USDA February | 73.71 | 78.41 |
