USDA’s initial 2023-24 projections

At the annual Ag Outlook Forum, USDA issued its first projections for the 2023-24 marketing year, based on the January WASDE Report.

USDA
USDA

Based on the January WASDE Report, USDA projects the following for 2023-24:

Corn: Planted acreage of 91.0 million, with harvested acres of 83.1 million. A national average corn yield of 181.5 bu. per acre would produce a crop of 15.085 billion bushels. Total use is projected at 14.490 billion bu., with feed and residual use of 5.600 billion bu., food, seed & industrial use of 6.690 billion bu. (5.250 billion bu. for ethanol) and exports of 2.200 billion bushels. Carryover: 1.887 billion bushels (13.0% stocks:use). Price: $5.60.

Soybeans: Planted acreage of 87.5 million, with harvested acres at 86.7 million. A national average bean yield of 52.0 bu. per acre would result in a crop of 4.510 billion bushels. Total use is projected at 4.461 billion bu., including a record 2.310 billion bu. of crush and exports of 2.025 billion bushels. Carryover: 290 million bushels (6.5% stocks:use). Price: $12.90.

Wheat: Planted acreage of 49.5 million, with harvested acres at 38.4 million. A national average yield of 49.2 bu. per acre would produce a crop of 1.887 billion bushels. Total domestic use is projected at 1.142 billion bu., with exports forecast at 825 million bushels. Carryover: 608 million bushels (30.9% stocks:use). Price: $8.50.

Cotton: Planted acreage of 10.9 million, with harvested acres at 8.9 million and a national average yield of 852 lbs. per acre. That would produce a crop of 15.80 million bales. Total use is projected at 16.1 million bales, including exports of 13.8 million bales. Carryover: 4.0 million bales (24.8% stocks:use). Price: 80.0¢.

Cattle: U.S. beef production is projected at 26.5 billion lbs., down 6% from 2022. Exports are projected at 3.09 billion lbs., down 12.6% from last year. Cash price: $159.00, which would be a record and approximately $15.00 above last year.

Hogs: U.S. pork production is projected at 27.4 billion lbs., up 2% from last year. Exports are expected to inch up 0.2% from last year to 3.65 billion pounds. Cash price: $66.50, down $4.71 from last year.

Broilers: U.S. production is projected to be 46.7 billion lbs. with broiler meat exports seen at 7.32 billion pounds. Wholesale broiler price: $1.27 per lb., down 10% from last year.

These are USDA’s current best guesstimates of the 2023-24 marketing year based on data in January. A lot can (and will) change... but they give the market benchmarks for the new-crop marketing year.