USDA’s initial survey-based corn and soybean crop estimates will be released on Friday. Those estimates are based mostly on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. The first cotton crop estimate will include objective yield data from Texas. Traders expect declines in production compared with USDA’s projections last month. The following estimates are from a Reuters survey (Bloomberg for cotton):
Expectations for 2022 | |||
Corn | |||
Production | Yield | Harvested acres (mil.) | |
Average est. | 14.392 | 175.9 | 81.837 |
Range | 14.192 - 14.553 | 173.2 - 177.6 | 81.500 - 82.300 |
USDA July proj. | 14.505 | 177.0 | 81.940 |
Soybeans | |||
| Production | Yield | Harvested acres (mil.) |
Average est. | 4.481 | 51.1 | 87.724 |
Range | 4.367 - 4.590 | 49.9 - 52.5 | 87.300 - 88.910 |
USDA July proj. | 4.505 | 51.5 | 87.511 |
Cotton | |||
Production | Yield | Harvested acres (mil.) | |
Average est. | 14.75 | NA | NA |
Range | 14.00 - 15.75 | NA | NA |
USDA July proj. | 15.50 | 870 | 8.55 |
Spring wheat will be the focus in USDA’s wheat crop estimates... Any changes to the U.S. wheat crop estimates this month are typically minor. Much of the focus will be on the spring wheat crop estimate, though traders expect only a modest increase in that figure versus last month. The following estimates are from a Reuters survey.
Expectations for | |
All wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.791 |
Range | 1.774 – 1.804 |
USDA July | 1.781 |
USDA 2021 | 1.646 |
| |
Winter wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.203 |
Range | 1.197 – 1.210 |
USDA July | 1.201 |
USDA 2021 | 1.277 |
| |
HRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 585 |
Range | 580 - 590 |
USDA July | 585 |
USDA 2021 | 749 |
| |
SRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 376 |
Range | 372 - 380 |
USDA July | 376 |
USDA 2021 | 358 |
| |
White winter wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 242 |
Range | 239 - 250 |
USDA July | 240 |
USDA 2021 | 167 |
| |
Other spring wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 510 |
Range | 496 - 523 |
USDA July | 503 |
USDA 2021 | 331 |
| |
Durum wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 77 |
Range | 74 - 80 |
USDA July | NA |
USDA 2021 | 77 |
| |
Don’t forget about ending stocks... The focal point of Friday’s report data will be the U.S. crop estimates, but adjustments to USDA’s balance sheets could influence prices. Traders anticipate smaller U.S. new-crop ending stocks for corn and cotton, while soybean carryover is expected to be unchanged and wheat ending stocks are likely to increase. The following estimates are from a Reuters survey (Bloomberg for cotton):
Expectations for U.S. Carryover | ||
Corn – billion bushels | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | 1.512 | 1.402 |
Range | 1.363 – 1.560 | 1.285 – 1.485 |
USDA July | 1.510 | 1.470 |
| ||
Soybeans – million bushels | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | 226 | 230 |
Range | 210 - 255 | 175 - 320 |
USDA July | 215 | 230 |
|
| |
Wheat – million bushels | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | NA | 650 |
Range | NA | 607 - 676 |
USDA July | 660 | 639 |
|
| |
Cotton – million bales | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | NA | 2.17 |
Range | NA | 1.90 – 2.50 |
USDA July | 3.40 | 2.40 |
Expectations for Global Carryover | ||
Corn – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | 312.40 | 309.82 |
Range | 310.80 – 314.20 | 302.00 – 314.00 |
USDA July | 312.28 | 312.94 |
| ||
Soybeans – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | 88.95 | 99.47 |
Range | 87.71 – 90.00 | 97.50 – 103.10 |
USDA July | 88.73 | 99.61 |
| ||
Wheat – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | 279.98 | 268.00 |
Range | 278.00 – 281.10 | 265.00 – 273.00 |
USDA July | 280.10 | 267.52 |
| ||
Cotton – million bales | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 83.68 |
Range | NA | 83.00 – 84.30 |
USDA July | 84.04 | 84.26 |