USDA’s Crop Production Report next Monday will feature the first survey-based corn and soybean crop estimates, based primarily off farmer responses and satellite imagery, along with the initial cotton crop estimate and updated wheat production. NASS will also incorporate FSA certified acreage data into its crop estimates. While USDA will also update old- and new-crop usage forecasts, the production estimates will be the focal point. The following pre-report expectations are based on Reuters surveys; Bloomberg for cotton.
Expectations for U.S. Corn, Soybean and Cotton Production
|
Corn
|
| Production (bil. bu.)
| Yield(bu. per acre)
| Harvested acres (mil.)
|
Average est.
| 15.112
| 182.1
| 82.967
|
Range
| 14.920 – 15.264
| 180.1 – 184.0
| 82.200 – 83.450
|
USDA July proj.
| 15.100
| 181.0
| 83.438
|
|
Soybeans
|
| Production (bil. bu.)
| Yield(bu. per acre)
| Harvested acres (mil.)
|
Average est.
| 4.469
| 52.5
| 85.110
|
Range
| 4.380 – 4.565
| 51.5 – 53.9
| 84.700 – 85.600
|
USDA July proj.
| 4.435
| 52.0
| 85.261
|
|
Cotton
|
| Production (mil. bales)
| Yield(lbs. per acre)
| Harvested acres (mil.)
|
Average est.
| 17.02
| NA
| NA
|
Range
| 15.750 – 19.000
| NA
| NA
|
USDA July proj.
| 17.00
| 844
| 9.67
|
Expectations for U.S. Wheat Production
|
All wheat – billion bu.
|
Average est.
| 2.015
|
Range
| 1.982 – 2.033
|
USDA July
| 2.008
|
|
Winter wheat – billion bu.
|
Average est.
| 1.343
|
Range
| 1.329 – 1.364
|
USDA July
| 1.341
|
|
HRW wheat – million bu.
|
Average est.
| 765
|
Range
| 755 – 788
|
USDA July
| 763
|
|
SRW wheat – million bu.
|
Average est.
| 344
|
Range
| 340 – 349
|
USDA July
| 344
|
|
White winter wheat – million bu.
|
Average est.
| 234
|
Range
| 230 – 240
|
USDA July
| 234
|
|
Other spring wheat – million bu.
|
Average est.
| 582
|
Range
| 565 – 595
|
USDA July
| 578
|
|
Durum wheat – million bu.
|
Average est.
| 90
|
Range
| 86 – 95
|
USDA July
| 89
|
|
Expectations for U.S. Carryover
|
Corn – billion bushels
|
|
| 2023-24
| 2024-25
|
Average est.
| 1.876
| 2.096
|
Range
| 1.825 – 1.954
| 1.897 – 2.285
|
USDA July
| 1.877
| 2.097
|
|
|
Soybeans – million bushels
|
|
| 2023-24
| 2024-25
|
Average est.
| 349
| 465
|
Range
| 341 – 365
| 380 – 555
|
USDA July
| 345
| 435
|
|
|
Wheat – million bushels
|
|
| 2023-24
| 2024-25
|
Average est.
| NA
| 862
|
Range
| NA
| 830 – 889
|
USDA July
| 702
| 856
|
|
|
Cotton – million bales
|
|
| 2023-24
| 2024-25
|
Average est.
| NA
| 5.27
|
Range
| NA
| 4.50 – 6.00
|
USDA July
| 3.05
| 5.30
|
Expectations for Global Carryover
|
Corn – MMT
|
| 2023-24
| 2024-25
|
Average est.
| NA
| 310.94
|
Range
| NA
| 307.00 – 313.00
|
USDA July
| 309.13
| 311.64
|
|
|
Soybeans – MMT
|
| 2023-24
| 2024-25
|
Average est.
| NA
| 127.97
|
Range
| NA
| 125.60 – 130.50
|
USDA July
| 111.25
| 127.90
|
|
|
Wheat – MMT
|
| 2023-24
| 2024-25
|
Average est.
| NA
| 256.87
|
Range
| NA
| 253.00 – 258.70
|
USDA July
| 260.99
| 257.24
|
|
|
Cotton – million bales
|
| 2023-24
| 2024-25
|
Average est.
| NA
| 82.62
|
Range
| NA
| 81.60 – 83.90
|
USDA July
| 79.31
| 82.63
|
